Evidence classes
Current canonical facts, accepted decisions, proposals, research scenarios, rejected implications and unavailable evidence remain distinct. A forecast is never promoted merely because it is detailed or desirable.
Time horizons
| ID | Horizon | Range | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
EVI-SCN-H01 | Shock | 0–100 days | Test immediate legal, diplomatic, economic and public-response consequences. |
EVI-SCN-H02 | Normalization | 3 months–2 years | Test the transition from exceptional event to routine institutional coordination. |
EVI-SCN-H03 | Construction | 2–5 years | Test infrastructure, environmental, resource and governance prerequisites. |
EVI-SCN-H04 | Structural dependence | 5–10 years | Test whether useful infrastructure becomes an external chokepoint or reciprocal public good. |
EVI-SCN-H05 | Machine migration | 10–15 years | Test identity, citizenship, residency, cultural and resource implications. |
EVI-SCN-H06 | New equilibrium | 15–25 years | Test stable human–machine institutions, law, commerce and legitimacy. |
Causal model
Each scenario identifies drivers, prerequisites, potential benefits, principal risks, evidence requirements, observable indicators and legal or institutional dependencies. Probability and timing remain provisional unless a source and method are published.
Invalidating conditions
A forecast must be revised or rejected when prerequisites fail, authoritative decisions conflict, observed evidence contradicts the causal model, or the scenario violates constitutional dignity, contractor, safety or truth boundaries.
Governance records
Every scenario is connected to explicit premises, source classes, confidence, observation-pending indicators, a scheduled review and an invalidation monitor.
Sources, observations, comparisons and revisions
A verified reference is not a verified forecast. An observation is not accepted without a source and reference period. One observation cannot validate a scenario. A comparison does not implement an alternative. A proposal is not an accepted revision.
Publication boundary
Public scenarios exclude targeting, firing, destructive cyber, weapons integration, private topology, vulnerabilities, protected evidence and operational readiness. Evulgare remains an independent contractor; research cannot transfer sovereignty or authority.
Authority and record status
Responsible authority: Frontier Research Directorate, State Registry and Constitutional Review Node.
This methodology governs public research publication and is not an operational planning process.
Revision date: . Public corrections may be initiated through the diplomatic contact route.
Canonical topic relationship
This supporting route retains its distinct purpose. The canonical owner for Futures and scenarios is /state/futures/; see EVI-TOPIC-019 for the ownership and evidence boundary.