Assumption definition
- Scenario family
- compute and energy demand
- Variable class
- compute economics
- Time horizon
- VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG
- Source report
- REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001
Dependencies
- service demand
- price
- model size
- utilization
Unresolved inputs
- Current primary technical and legal sources
- Independent engineering or institutional evidence
- Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated
- Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority
Falsification evidence
- total demand declines persistently after efficiency gains
- rebound is negligible across multiple cycles
Propagation edges
| Order | Target | Direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| DIRECT | compute and energy demand | DECREASES_PRESSURE | MEDIUM |
| SECOND_ORDER | digital-to-physical industrial progression | CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION | LOW |
Truth boundary
Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted.
Authority and record status
Responsible authority: Scenario Governance Board.
Calibrated assumption only; no observation, forecast validation or capability claim.
Revision date: . Public corrections may be initiated through the diplomatic contact route.