Assumption definition
- Scenario family
- civilian nuclear development
- Variable class
- nonproliferation confidence
- Time horizon
- VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG
- Source report
- REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001
Dependencies
- material accountancy
- inspection access
- correction history
- political trust
Unresolved inputs
- Current primary technical and legal sources
- Independent engineering or institutional evidence
- Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated
- Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority
Falsification evidence
- verified diversion or material inconsistency
- transparency measures fail to change external assessments
Propagation edges
| Order | Target | Direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| DIRECT | civilian nuclear development | MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT | BOUNDED_HIGH |
| SECOND_ORDER | proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint | CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION | LOW |
Truth boundary
Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted.
Authority and record status
Responsible authority: Scenario Governance Board.
Calibrated assumption only; no observation, forecast validation or capability claim.
Revision date: . Public corrections may be initiated through the diplomatic contact route.