Changed assumption
Extend advanced-chip replacement time from months to years
Downstream effect
Forces model compression, mature-node fallback, workload rationing, and slower population or service growth.
Falsification use
Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.
Truth boundary
Does not establish a current shortage.
Authority and record status
Responsible authority: Scenario governance and National Archive Authority.
Illustrative comparison only; no forecast or capability claim.
Revision date: . Public corrections may be initiated through the diplomatic contact route.