Changed assumption
High emergency performance with immediate handback versus retained control
Downstream effect
Handback preserves legitimacy and local capacity; retained control raises domination, backlash, and institutional hollowing risk.
Falsification use
Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.
Truth boundary
A fictional comparison, not a record of actual crisis response.
Authority and record status
Responsible authority: Scenario governance and National Archive Authority.
Illustrative comparison only; no forecast or capability claim.
Revision date: . Public corrections may be initiated through the diplomatic contact route.