{ "schemaVersion": "eviulon-scenario-calibration-ledger-1.0", "version": "2.24.0", "generated": "2026-08-09", "status": "PASS", "v221AssumptionsCalibrated": 56, "newNuclearAssumptionsCalibrated": 18, "recordCount": 74, "comparisonCount": 12, "externalNetworkCalls": 0, "records": [ { "id": "EVI-CAL-001", "slug": "machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-SIM-A-001", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CIV-PROGRESSION-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine-Civilization Progression from Earth Infrastructure to Earth–Moon Capacity — Corrected Scenario Edition", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-civilization-progression-simulation.md", "claim": "Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "units": "stage index; no current capability units", "baselineProvenance": "No current operational baseline adopted unless a separate current evidence record states one.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "lawful capital formation", "robotic maintenance", "energy", "materials", "semiconductor supply" ], "lagStructure": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in lawful capital formation", "verified change in robotic maintenance", "verified change in energy", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "failure of any prerequisite", "insufficient maintenance evidence", "regulatory denial" ], "updateRule": "Retain SOURCE_ONLY until a separately authorized review binds current primary evidence, units, method, uncertainty, and date. 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Preserve prior values and publish a correction or supersession record.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-053/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration record for a source-derived assumption; not an observation, forecast, capability, or authorization." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-054", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-054", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-SIM-A-054", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine to Organic to Machine Panspermia Loops", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops.md", "claim": "Interstellar probes require bounded centuries-scale autonomy", "variableClass": "lunar or off-world expansion", "units": "mass and speed values are source estimates", "baselineProvenance": "No current operational baseline adopted unless a separate current evidence record states one.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "propulsion", "shielding", "power", "fault management" ], "lagStructure": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in propulsion", "verified change in shielding", "verified change in power", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "dust impact", "radiation", "power loss" ], "updateRule": "Retain SOURCE_ONLY until a separately authorized review binds current primary evidence, units, method, uncertainty, and date. Preserve prior values and publish a correction or supersession record.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-054/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration record for a source-derived assumption; not an observation, forecast, capability, or authorization." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-055", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-055", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-SIM-A-055", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine to Organic to Machine Panspermia Loops", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops.md", "claim": "Biological release should be deferred unless target sterility and governance thresholds are met", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "units": "qualitative", "baselineProvenance": "No current operational baseline adopted unless a separate current evidence record states one.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "planetary protection", "target characterization", "authority" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in planetary protection", "verified change in target characterization", "verified change in authority", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "native life detected", "uncertainty remains" ], "updateRule": "Retain SOURCE_ONLY until a separately authorized review binds current primary evidence, units, method, uncertainty, and date. 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Preserve prior values and publish a correction or supersession record.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-056/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration record for a source-derived assumption; not an observation, forecast, capability, or authorization." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-057", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-01", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-001", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine City Nuclear Infrastructure", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure.md", "claim": "thermal rejection constrains machine-city density", "variableClass": "thermal power", "units": "MWth rejected per MWe consumed", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; 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append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-04/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-061", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-05", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-005", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine City Nuclear Infrastructure", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure.md", "claim": "lunar nuclear viability is dominated by launch mass, heat rejection, dust, repair, and law", "variableClass": "lunar energy system", "units": "kg, kW, repair interval", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; 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append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-06/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-063", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-07", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-007", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Eviulon Nuclear Geopolitics Simulation", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation.md", "claim": "credible safeguards and transparency can reduce but not eliminate security-dilemma pressure", "variableClass": "nonproliferation confidence", "units": "confidence interval not supplied", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "material accountancy", "inspection access", "correction history", "political trust" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in material accountancy", "verified change in inspection access", "verified change in correction history", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "verified diversion or material inconsistency", "transparency measures fail to change external assessments" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-07/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-064", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-08", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-008", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Eviulon Nuclear Geopolitics Simulation", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation.md", "claim": "containment and opacity can create a reinforcing escalation loop", "variableClass": "geopolitical feedback", "units": "qualitative loop strength", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "sanctions", "supply cutoff", "domestic politics", "communication" ], "lagStructure": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in sanctions", "verified change in supply cutoff", "verified change in domestic politics", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "cooperative verification remains stable under pressure", "restrictions do not increase opacity or threat perception" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-08/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-065", "slug": "machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-09", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-009", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-NUCLEAR-DEBATE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine Civilization Nuclear Debate Analysis", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis.md", "claim": "resilience-first denial may provide security benefits without retaliatory mass-casualty threats", "variableClass": "strategic doctrine", "units": "survivability and recovery time", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "distribution", "hardening", "reconstruction", "warning" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in distribution", "verified change in hardening", "verified change in reconstruction", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "attacks can still achieve decisive objectives", "resilience costs exceed credible alternatives" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-09/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-066", "slug": "machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-10", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-010", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-NUCLEAR-DEBATE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Machine Civilization Nuclear Debate Analysis", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis.md", "claim": "nuclear ambiguity imposes legitimacy, alliance, supply, and accident costs", "variableClass": "strategic externality", "units": "cost classes", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "recognition", "trade", "insurance", "public trust" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in recognition", "verified change in trade", "verified change in insurance", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "counterparties remain unaffected by ambiguity", "costs are offset without increased escalation risk" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-10/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-067", "slug": "ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-11", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-011", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-NUCLEAR-DETERRENCE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Ai Civilization Nuclear Deterrence Study", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study.md", "claim": "weapons incentives are conditional rather than inevitable", "variableClass": "proliferation incentive", "units": "weighted scenario index", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "threat", "alliances", "asset concentration", "survivability", "norms" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in threat", "verified change in alliances", "verified change in asset concentration", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "index produces same result across materially different assumptions", "historical or modeled evidence contradicts causal weights" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-11/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-068", "slug": "ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-12", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-012", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-NUCLEAR-DETERRENCE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Ai Civilization Nuclear Deterrence Study", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study.md", "claim": "concentrated irreplaceable infrastructure can increase coercion and crisis pressure", "variableClass": "infrastructure vulnerability", "units": "replacement time and loss fraction", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "site concentration", "spares", "networking", "power" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in site concentration", "verified change in spares", "verified change in networking", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "assets prove rapidly replaceable and geographically distributed", "concentration does not affect adversary planning" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-12/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-069", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-13", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-013", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Nuclear Powered Machine Civilization Analysis", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis.md", "claim": "energy service requirements vary by machine workload class", "variableClass": "energy demand", "units": "kW, latency, state-loss tolerance", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "model size", "duty cycle", "storage", "control role" ], "lagStructure": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in model size", "verified change in duty cycle", "verified change in storage", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "measured workloads do not separate into useful service classes", "power demand is dominated by shared infrastructure rather than workload" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-13/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-070", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-14", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-014", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Nuclear Powered Machine Civilization Analysis", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis.md", "claim": "no single generation technology is universally optimal", "variableClass": "energy portfolio", "units": "cost, availability, land, water, emissions", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "site", "law", "fuel", "grid", "weather", "capital" ], "lagStructure": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in site", "verified change in law", "verified change in fuel", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "one technology dominates across all evaluated sites and failure modes", "portfolio diversity increases common-mode risk" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-14/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-071", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-15", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-015", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Nuclear Powered Machine Civilization Analysis", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis.md", "claim": "hardware efficiency gains may be offset by rebound demand", "variableClass": "compute economics", "units": "operations per joule and total energy", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "service demand", "price", "model size", "utilization" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in service demand", "verified change in price", "verified change in model size", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "total demand declines persistently after efficiency gains", "rebound is negligible across multiple cycles" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-15/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-072", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-16", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-016", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Autonomous Nuclear And Polar Compute", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute.md", "claim": "robotic maintainability is designed into plant geometry and interfaces", "variableClass": "maintenance engineering", "units": "task success rate and intervention time", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "modularity", "access", "tooling", "sensors", "spares" ], "lagStructure": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in modularity", "verified change in access", "verified change in tooling", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "retrofitted systems equal purpose-built maintainability", "task success remains low despite interface redesign" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-16/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-073", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-17", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-017", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Autonomous Nuclear And Polar Compute", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute.md", "claim": "deterministic reactor protection must remain independent from adaptive optimization", "variableClass": "safety architecture", "units": "independence and fault coverage", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "sensor diversity", "logic isolation", "power", "testing" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in sensor diversity", "verified change in logic isolation", "verified change in power", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "adaptive coupling is required for safe shutdown", "independence cannot be maintained under credible faults" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-17/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-074", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-18", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-NUC-A-018", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "sourceReportTitle": "Autonomous Nuclear And Polar Compute", "sourceReportRoute": "/docs/long-term-memory/reports/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute.md", "claim": "polar cold reduces some cooling load but creates condensation, static, brittleness, ice, and logistics penalties", "variableClass": "polar compute", "units": "PUE and failure rate", "baselineProvenance": "Corrected v2.22 source edition; no current operational baseline adopted.", "rangeStatus": "NOT_SUPPLIED_NO_RANGE_INVENTED", "optimisticRange": null, "centralRange": null, "conservativeRange": null, "dependencies": [ "humidity control", "materials", "filtration", "transport" ], "lagStructure": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "observableLeadingIndicators": [ "verified change in humidity control", "verified change in materials", "verified change in filtration", "primary-source status review", "independent replication or operational evidence", "recorded contradiction or correction" ], "falsificationCondition": [ "field data shows net reliability and cost advantage without major mitigations", "environmental and logistics costs dominate" ], "updateRule": "Require separately authorized primary-source and competent-authority review; append revisions and never silently promote a source scenario to fact.", "evidenceNeededForPromotion": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "lastVerifiedDate": null, "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReviewState": "SOURCE_ONLY", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-18/", "truthBoundary": "High-consequence nuclear or polar scenario input; no reactor, fuel-cycle, weapon, permit, deployment, or current capability is established." } ], "comparisons": [ { "id": "EVI-CMP-001", "slug": "industrial-closure", "changedAssumption": "Increase autonomous maintenance success from low to high", "downstreamEffect": "Shortens repair backlog and replacement time but increases dependence on verified tooling, spares, calibration, and common-mode software control.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/industrial-closure/", "truthBoundary": "Does not prove industrial independence." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-002", "slug": "maintenance-autonomy", "changedAssumption": "Reduce spare-part availability by half", "downstreamEffect": "Raises outage duration, cannibalization, and reliance on external logistics even when robotic diagnosis remains strong.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/maintenance-autonomy/", "truthBoundary": "Shows that software autonomy cannot substitute for physical inventory." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-003", "slug": "power", "changedAssumption": "Replace a single concentrated baseload source with a diversified portfolio", "downstreamEffect": "May reduce common-mode fuel or design risk while increasing coordination, storage, transmission, and control complexity.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/power/", "truthBoundary": "No universal portfolio winner is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-004", "slug": "semiconductor-dependence", "changedAssumption": "Extend advanced-chip replacement time from months to years", "downstreamEffect": "Forces model compression, mature-node fallback, workload rationing, and slower population or service growth.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/semiconductor-dependence/", "truthBoundary": "Does not establish a current shortage." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-005", "slug": "crisis-legitimacy", "changedAssumption": "High emergency performance with immediate handback versus retained control", "downstreamEffect": "Handback preserves legitimacy and local capacity; retained control raises domination, backlash, and institutional hollowing risk.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/crisis-legitimacy/", "truthBoundary": "A fictional comparison, not a record of actual crisis response." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-006", "slug": "public-administration-adoption", "changedAssumption": "Require tested manual fallback and open rules before automation", "downstreamEffect": "Slows initial deployment but reduces exit cost, accountability gaps, and catastrophic policy lock-in.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/public-administration-adoption/", "truthBoundary": "Does not claim a government deployment." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-007", "slug": "machine-identity", "changedAssumption": "Treat credentials as replaceable while preserving civic identity", "downstreamEffect": "Reduces identity erasure after compromise but requires stronger provenance, recovery, and adjudication.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/machine-identity/", "truthBoundary": "Does not issue or recognize a real credential." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-008", "slug": "finance", "changedAssumption": "Shift from opaque internal credit to audited bounded accounting", "downstreamEffect": "Reduces hidden leverage and counterparty uncertainty but may limit rapid discretionary expansion.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/finance/", "truthBoundary": "Does not create a currency or reserve." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-009", "slug": "maritime-operations", "changedAssumption": "Assume communications partition for seven days", "downstreamEffect": "Increases local autonomy, safe-state, collision-avoidance, and legal handback requirements; may reduce fleet efficiency.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/maritime-operations/", "truthBoundary": "Does not represent an operational vessel." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-010", "slug": "antarctica", "changedAssumption": "Require full inspection, waste export, and no-mining compliance", "downstreamEffect": "Raises logistics and cost while reducing legal, environmental, and geopolitical risk.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/antarctica/", "truthBoundary": "Does not imply authorization or feasibility." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-011", "slug": "lunar-expansion", "changedAssumption": "Double radiator mass and halve repair success", "downstreamEffect": "Delays or defeats local industrial closure even if launch and power generation remain available.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/lunar-expansion/", "truthBoundary": "No lunar schedule is predicted." }, { "id": "EVI-CMP-012", "slug": "geopolitical-reaction", "changedAssumption": "Increase external suspicion while safeguards confidence remains flat", "downstreamEffect": "Accelerates restrictions, insurance withdrawal, and crisis signaling; transparency without trusted verification may have limited effect.", "falsificationUse": "Use the comparison to identify which evidence would reverse or materially alter the downstream result.", "currentState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_COMPARISON", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/calibration/comparisons/geopolitical-reaction/", "truthBoundary": "No government response is predicted." } ], "truthBoundary": "Local source calibration only. No external verification, prediction, operational baseline, confidence interval, diplomatic response, infrastructure capability, or legal authority is created." }