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No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-026", "slug": "ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Dependency rises as workflows standardize around a provider", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "network effects", "switching costs", "market share" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CIV-SYSTEMIC-INTEGRATION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "interoperability", "redundancy", "public policy" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-027", "slug": "ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "States react at non-linear penetration thresholds", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "domestic politics", "national security", "industry lobbying" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CIV-SYSTEMIC-INTEGRATION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "low dependence", "competitive alternatives" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-028", "slug": "ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "claim": "Physical independence lags digital scaling", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "power", "robots", "semiconductors", "materials" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CIV-SYSTEMIC-INTEGRATION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "maintenance paradox", "supply embargo" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-029", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Network scale can lower unit cost and raise switching cost", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "reinvestment", "standardization", "reliability" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "competition", "regulation", "technical failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-030", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Infrastructure concentration creates structural power without direct coercion", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "critical service adoption", "replacement time" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "interoperability", "multi-provider resilience" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-031", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Autonomous infrastructure requires maintenance and supply-chain closure", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "robotic repair", "power", "spares" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "hardware mortality", "materials shortage" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-032", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "claim": "Lunar navigation could become a concentrated service layer", "variableClass": "lunar or off-world expansion", "dependencies": [ "space deployment", "interoperability", "regulatory acceptance" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "competing constellations", "launch failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-033", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-033", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "machine identity and economic trust", "claim": "Accountable machine identity may command a commercial trust premium", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "persistent identity", "insurance", "legal recourse", "bounded authority" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "high cost", "legal non-recognition", "weak enforcement" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-034", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-034", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Jurisdictions solving machine accountability may attract commerce", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "predictable law", "cross-border acceptance", "appeal" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "fragmentation", "foreign rejection" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-035", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-035", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Runtime assurance and delegated authority must both pass", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "attestation", "issuer authority", "status", "policy" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "stale attestation", "overbroad delegation" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-036", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-036", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Machine passports may reduce onboarding and insurance friction", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "standardization", "privacy", "actuarial data" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "poor interoperability", "privacy harm" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-037", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-037", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Compute Credit architectures trade stability, autonomy, liquidity, and physical backing", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "reserves", "redemption", "governance", "liquidity" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "reserve shortfall", "run", "legal prohibition" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-037/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-038", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-038", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Compute and energy are core machine-economy resources", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "metering", "hardware depreciation", "power availability" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measurement error", "substitution" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-038/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-039", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-039", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "scientific influence", "claim": "Machine settlement needs Byzantine and operational resilience", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "distributed validation", "recovery", "key governance" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "partition", "consensus failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-039/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-040", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-040", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "External acceptance depends on legal classification and convertibility", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "official recognition", "audit", "consumer protection" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "regulatory rejection", "illiquidity" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-040/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-041", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-041", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Crewless vessels change design and operating economics", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "autonomy", "maintenance", "insurance", "flag-state approval" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "collision", "communications loss", "port denial" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-041/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-042", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-042", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Operational use of high seas does not create sovereignty", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "UNCLOS/IMO compliance", "flag state", "port state" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unlawful activity", "coastal-state action" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-042/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-043", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-043", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Public goods may improve adoption and legitimacy", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "SAR", "weather", "monitoring", "cable repair" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "service failure", "data misuse" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-043/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-044", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-044", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "maritime logistics", "claim": "Deterministic fallback and auditable logs are essential for autonomous vessels", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "redundant comms", "COLREGs logic", "black-box evidence" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "software compromise", "sensor conflict" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-044/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-045", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-045", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Machine-managed firms may reduce cognitive labor cost while increasing compute and depreciation cost", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "hardware", "energy", "cybersecurity", "capital" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "cost reversal", "regulatory restriction" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-045/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-046", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-046", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Sector adoption moves from software toward physical industry as capital and autonomy mature", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "robotics", "permits", "maintenance", "supply chain" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "failed autonomy", "slow construction" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-046/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-047", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-047", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "semiconductor closure", "claim": "Advanced fabs are late and capital-intensive bottlenecks", "variableClass": "semiconductor autonomy", "dependencies": [ "lithography", "UPW", "chemicals", "talent" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "export controls", "yield failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-047/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-048", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-048", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Automation changes labor, tax, and competition politics", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "policy response", "social distribution", "public legitimacy" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "labor resistance", "tax reform" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-048/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-049", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-049", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "claim": "Identity, attestation, evidence integrity, containment, rekeying, and recovery form a defensive chain", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "SPIFFE/RATS concepts", "signed provenance", "recovery baseline" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unverified implementation", "compromised trust root" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-049/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-050", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-050", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Synthetic fault injections can test bounded responses without offensive operations", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "isolated range", "deterministic inputs", "no network" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "production extrapolation", "unsafe testing" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-050/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-051", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-051", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "scientific influence", "claim": "A passing technical proof does not create legal authority", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "competent authority", "review", "scope" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "authority collapse" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-051/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-052", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-052", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "claim": "Recovery must preserve residual unknowns and last-known-good evidence", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "immutable baseline", "quorum", "audit" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "corrupt backup", "partial evidence" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-052/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-053", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-053", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "machine identity and economic trust", "claim": "A machine-to-organic-to-machine loop is conditional and not empirically established", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "dependencies": [ "interstellar delivery", "biosphere establishment", "intelligence emergence", "machine civilization" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "sterile failure", "non-technological evolution", "mission loss" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-053/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-054", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-054", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "claim": "Interstellar probes require bounded centuries-scale autonomy", "variableClass": "lunar or off-world expansion", "dependencies": [ "propulsion", "shielding", "power", "fault management" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "dust impact", "radiation", "power loss" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-054/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-055", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-055", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "maritime logistics", "claim": "Biological release should be deferred unless target sterility and governance thresholds are met", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "dependencies": [ "planetary protection", "target characterization", "authority" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "native life detected", "uncertainty remains" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-055/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-056", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-056", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Antarctic infrastructure", "claim": "Dormant microbes or genome archives are more plausible than complex organoids as seed payloads", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "dependencies": [ "preservation", "biofoundry", "containment" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "viability loss", "ethical rejection" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-056/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-057", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-01", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "thermal rejection constrains machine-city density", "variableClass": "thermal power", "dependencies": [ "compute load", "cooling technology", "ambient sink", "radiator or water availability" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measured heat reuse or rejection materially below modeled load", "site cannot lawfully support required heat sink" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-01/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-058", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-02", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "flexible compute can provide bounded load-following and maintenance reserve", "variableClass": "demand flexibility", "dependencies": [ "workload class", "checkpointing", "storage persistence", "grid controls" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "critical workloads cannot tolerate curtailment", "recovery cost exceeds grid benefit" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-02/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-059", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-03", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "civil nuclear independence depends on a long multi-supplier component and fuel-service tree", "variableClass": "industrial dependency", "dependencies": [ "licensing", "fuel services", "heavy forgings", "I&C", "inspection", "waste" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "single unavailable component prevents operation", "lawful alternate supply cannot be established" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-03/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-060", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-04", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "industrial closure is a component-level measure rather than a sovereignty threshold", "variableClass": "industrial closure", "dependencies": [ "manufacturing yield", "quality assurance", "materials", "maintenance" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "closure score hides critical imported dependencies", "locally produced components fail qualification" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-04/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-061", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-05", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "claim": "lunar nuclear viability is dominated by launch mass, heat rejection, dust, repair, and law", "variableClass": "lunar energy system", "dependencies": [ "launch access", "radiators", "dust control", "robotics", "mission authority" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "radiator mass or repair burden defeats mission economics", "competent authority denies mission" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-05/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-062", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-06", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "suspicion, capability, intent, preparation, decision, and action must remain separate analytical states", "variableClass": "strategic perception", "dependencies": [ "inspection", "procurement", "declarations", "intelligence confidence" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "classification cannot be supported by independent evidence", "contradictory evidence remains unresolved" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-06/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-063", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-07", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "credible safeguards and transparency can reduce but not eliminate security-dilemma pressure", "variableClass": "nonproliferation confidence", "dependencies": [ "material accountancy", "inspection access", "correction history", "political trust" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "verified diversion or material inconsistency", "transparency measures fail to change external assessments" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-07/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-064", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-08", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "containment and opacity can create a reinforcing escalation loop", "variableClass": "geopolitical feedback", "dependencies": [ "sanctions", "supply cutoff", "domestic politics", "communication" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "cooperative verification remains stable under pressure", "restrictions do not increase opacity or threat perception" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-08/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-065", "slug": "machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-09", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "resilience-first denial may provide security benefits without retaliatory mass-casualty threats", "variableClass": "strategic doctrine", "dependencies": [ "distribution", "hardening", "reconstruction", "warning" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-NUCLEAR-DEBATE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "attacks can still achieve decisive objectives", "resilience costs exceed credible alternatives" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-09/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-066", "slug": "machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-10", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "claim": "nuclear ambiguity imposes legitimacy, alliance, supply, and accident costs", "variableClass": "strategic externality", "dependencies": [ "recognition", "trade", "insurance", "public trust" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-NUCLEAR-DEBATE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "counterparties remain unaffected by ambiguity", "costs are offset without increased escalation risk" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-10/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-067", "slug": "ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-11", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "claim": "weapons incentives are conditional rather than inevitable", "variableClass": "proliferation incentive", "dependencies": [ "threat", "alliances", "asset concentration", "survivability", "norms" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-NUCLEAR-DETERRENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "index produces same result across materially different assumptions", "historical or modeled evidence contradicts causal weights" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-11/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-068", "slug": "ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-12", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "concentrated irreplaceable infrastructure can increase coercion and crisis pressure", "variableClass": "infrastructure vulnerability", "dependencies": [ "site concentration", "spares", "networking", "power" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-NUCLEAR-DETERRENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "assets prove rapidly replaceable and geographically distributed", "concentration does not affect adversary planning" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-12/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-069", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-13", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "energy service requirements vary by machine workload class", "variableClass": "energy demand", "dependencies": [ "model size", "duty cycle", "storage", "control role" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measured workloads do not separate into useful service classes", "power demand is dominated by shared infrastructure rather than workload" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-13/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-070", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-14", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "no single generation technology is universally optimal", "variableClass": "energy portfolio", "dependencies": [ "site", "law", "fuel", "grid", "weather", "capital" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "one technology dominates across all evaluated sites and failure modes", "portfolio diversity increases common-mode risk" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-14/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-071", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-15", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "hardware efficiency gains may be offset by rebound demand", "variableClass": "compute economics", "dependencies": [ "service demand", "price", "model size", "utilization" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "total demand declines persistently after efficiency gains", "rebound is negligible across multiple cycles" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-15/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-072", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-16", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "robotic maintainability is designed into plant geometry and interfaces", "variableClass": "maintenance engineering", "dependencies": [ "modularity", "access", "tooling", "sensors", "spares" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "retrofitted systems equal purpose-built maintainability", "task success remains low despite interface redesign" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-16/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-073", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-17", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "deterministic reactor protection must remain independent from adaptive optimization", "variableClass": "safety architecture", "dependencies": [ "sensor diversity", "logic isolation", "power", "testing" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "adaptive coupling is required for safe shutdown", "independence cannot be maintained under credible faults" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-17/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-074", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-18", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Antarctic infrastructure", "claim": "polar cold reduces some cooling load but creates condensation, static, brittleness, ice, and logistics penalties", "variableClass": "polar compute", "dependencies": [ "humidity control", "materials", "filtration", "transport" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "field data shows net reliability and cost advantage without major mitigations", "environmental and logistics costs dominate" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-18/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." } ], "edges": [ { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0001", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "failure of any prerequisite", "insufficient maintenance evidence", "regulatory denial" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0002", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in digital-to-physical industrial progression may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0003", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "Earth–Moon expansion", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "continued critical imports", "unclosed repair loop", "insufficient power" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0004", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in Earth–Moon expansion may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0005", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "Antarctic infrastructure", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "legal rejection", "environmental harm", "lack of sponsor" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0006", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in Antarctic infrastructure may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0007", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "insufficient surplus", "blocked banking", "supply bottlenecks" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0008", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0009", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "catastrophic failure", "hidden control", "rights violations" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0010", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0011", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unrepaired incident", "deception", "coercion" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0012", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "public-administration adoption", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination may alter public-administration adoption only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0013", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "black-box deprivation", "unreviewable decision" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0014", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "public-administration adoption", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination may alter public-administration adoption only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0015", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "dependency exploitation", "suppressed dissent" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0016", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0017", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "failed intervention", "unauthorized control", "unequal aid" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0018", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "public-administration adoption", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination may alter public-administration adoption only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0019", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "network partition", "robotic failure", "supply depletion" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0020", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in autonomous maintenance maturity may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0021", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "crisis response", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "successful diversification", "sunset enforcement" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0022", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in crisis response may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0023", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "crisis response", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "missing evidence", "indefinite emergency power" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0024", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in crisis response may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0025", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "public-administration adoption", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "public rejection", "failed pilot", "constitutional limits" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0026", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in public-administration adoption may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0027", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "open standards", "retained manual capacity" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0028", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0029", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "missing record", "unreviewable model" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0030", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "public-administration adoption", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination may alter public-administration adoption only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0031", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unbounded execution", "irreversible lock-in" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0032", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0033", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "human alternatives", "failed validation", "restricted access" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0034", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0035", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "low adoption", "unsafe result", "better alternatives" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0036", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; 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NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in compute and energy demand may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0043", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "compute and energy demand", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "brittle failure", "battery loss", "ice movement" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0044", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in compute and energy demand may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0045", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "critical component failure", "chemical shortage" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0046", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in digital-to-physical industrial progression may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0047", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "hidden construction", "dual-use activity" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0048", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0049", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-025", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "hardware limits", "insufficient revenue" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0050", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-025", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0051", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-026", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "interoperability", "redundancy", "public policy" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0052", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-026", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0053", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-027", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "low dependence", "competitive alternatives" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0054", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-027", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0055", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-028", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "maintenance paradox", "supply embargo" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0056", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-028", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in digital-to-physical industrial progression may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0057", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-029", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "competition", "regulation", "technical failure" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0058", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-029", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0059", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-030", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "interoperability", "multi-provider resilience" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0060", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-030", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0061", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-031", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "hardware mortality", "materials shortage" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0062", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-031", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in autonomous maintenance maturity may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0063", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-032", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "Earth–Moon expansion", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "competing constellations", "launch failure" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0064", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-032", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in Earth–Moon expansion may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0065", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-033", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "machine identity and economic trust", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "high cost", "legal non-recognition", "weak enforcement" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0066", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-033", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in machine identity and economic trust may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0067", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-034", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "fragmentation", "foreign rejection" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0068", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-034", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0069", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-035", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "stale attestation", "overbroad delegation" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0070", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-035", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0071", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-036", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "poor interoperability", "privacy harm" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0072", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-036", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0073", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-037", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "reserve shortfall", "run", "legal prohibition" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0074", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-037", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0075", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-038", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measurement error", "substitution" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0076", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-038", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0077", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-039", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "scientific influence", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "partition", "consensus failure" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0078", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-039", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in scientific influence may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0079", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-040", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "regulatory rejection", "illiquidity" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0080", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-040", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0081", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-041", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "collision", "communications loss", "port denial" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0082", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-041", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in autonomous maintenance maturity may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0083", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-042", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unlawful activity", "coastal-state action" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0084", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-042", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0085", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-043", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "service failure", "data misuse" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0086", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-043", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0087", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-044", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "maritime logistics", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "software compromise", "sensor conflict" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0088", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-044", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in maritime logistics may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0089", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-045", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "cost reversal", "regulatory restriction" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0090", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-045", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0091", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-046", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "failed autonomy", "slow construction" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0092", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-046", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in corporate growth and capital formation may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0093", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-047", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "semiconductor closure", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "export controls", "yield failure" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0094", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-047", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in semiconductor closure may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0095", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-048", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "labor resistance", "tax reform" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0096", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-048", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in geopolitical reaction may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0097", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-049", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unverified implementation", "compromised trust root" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0098", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-049", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in digital-to-physical industrial progression may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0099", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-050", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "production extrapolation", "unsafe testing" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0100", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-050", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in autonomous maintenance maturity may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0101", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-051", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "scientific influence", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "authority collapse" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0102", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-051", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in scientific influence may alter legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0103", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-052", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "corrupt backup", "partial evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0104", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-052", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in digital-to-physical industrial progression may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0105", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-053", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "machine identity and economic trust", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "sterile failure", "non-technological evolution", "mission loss" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0106", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-053", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "corporate growth and capital formation", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in machine identity and economic trust may alter corporate growth and capital formation only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0107", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-054", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "Earth–Moon expansion", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "dust impact", "radiation", "power loss" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0108", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-054", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in Earth–Moon expansion may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0109", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-055", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "maritime logistics", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "native life detected", "uncertainty remains" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0110", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-055", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in maritime logistics may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0111", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-056", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "Antarctic infrastructure", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "viability loss", "ethical rejection" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0112", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-056", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in Antarctic infrastructure may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0113", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-057", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "compute and energy demand", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measured heat reuse or rejection materially below modeled load", "site cannot lawfully support required heat sink" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0114", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-057", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in compute and energy demand may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0115", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-058", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "compute and energy demand", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "critical workloads cannot tolerate curtailment", "recovery cost exceeds grid benefit" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0116", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-058", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in compute and energy demand may alter digital-to-physical industrial progression only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0117", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-059", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "single unavailable component prevents operation", "lawful alternate supply cannot be established" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0118", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-059", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0119", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-060", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "closure score hides critical imported dependencies", "locally produced components fail qualification" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0120", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-060", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0121", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-061", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "Earth–Moon expansion", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "radiator mass or repair burden defeats mission economics", "competent authority denies mission" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0122", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-061", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in Earth–Moon expansion may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0123", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-062", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "classification cannot be supported by independent evidence", "contradictory evidence remains unresolved" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0124", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-062", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0125", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-063", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "verified diversion or material inconsistency", "transparency measures fail to change external assessments" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0126", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-063", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0127", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-064", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "cooperative verification remains stable under pressure", "restrictions do not increase opacity or threat perception" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0128", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-064", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0129", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-065", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "attacks can still achieve decisive objectives", "resilience costs exceed credible alternatives" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0130", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-065", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0131", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-066", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "counterparties remain unaffected by ambiguity", "costs are offset without increased escalation risk" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0132", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-066", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "public-administration adoption", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination may alter public-administration adoption only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0133", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-067", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "INCREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "index produces same result across materially different assumptions", "historical or modeled evidence contradicts causal weights" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0134", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-067", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "geopolitical reaction", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint may alter geopolitical reaction only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0135", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-068", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "civilian nuclear development", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "DECREASES_PRESSURE", "confidenceClass": "MEDIUM", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "assets prove rapidly replaceable and geographically distributed", "concentration does not affect adversary planning" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0136", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-068", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; NOT_QUANTIFIED", "propagationRule": "Changes in civilian nuclear development may alter proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint only when intervening dependencies remain satisfied.", "competingInterpretation": "Intervening institutions or alternative suppliers may absorb the change.", "failureMode": "Treating a possible second-order pathway as inevitable.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Verified absence of the intervening mechanism", "Observed substitution or decoupling", "Contradictory primary evidence" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0137", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-069", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "compute and energy demand", "dependencyOrder": "DIRECT", "directionOfEffect": "MIXED_CONTEXT_DEPENDENT", "confidenceClass": "BOUNDED_HIGH", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "propagationRule": "A perturbation changes only the bounded family indicator; it does not convert the model into an observed forecast.", "competingInterpretation": "The same input may be offset by law, substitution, capital constraints, counterparty response, or a different causal structure.", "failureMode": "False precision, omitted dependency, double counting, or scenario output presented as current fact.", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measured workloads do not separate into useful service classes", "power demand is dominated by shared infrastructure rather than workload" ], "noObservationOccurred": true }, { "id": "EVI-UP-E-0138", "sourceAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-069", "targetClaimOrScenarioOutput": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "dependencyOrder": "SECOND_ORDER", "directionOfEffect": "CONDITIONAL_PROPAGATION", "confidenceClass": "LOW", "timeHorizon": "LONGER_THAN_DIRECT_EFFECT; 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No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-008", "slug": "eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "lawful mandate", "voluntary restraint", "human and machine rights" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-POLITICAL-LEGITIMACY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "dependency exploitation", "suppressed dissent" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-009", "slug": "ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "claim": "Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "lawful emergency request", "logistics", "public trust", "handback" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CRISIS-POWER-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "failed intervention", "unauthorized control", "unequal aid" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-010", "slug": "ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "reliable fleets", "communications", "maintenance", "safety" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CRISIS-POWER-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "network partition", "robotic failure", "supply depletion" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-011", "slug": "ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "crisis response", "claim": "Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "procurement lock-in", "reconstruction", "public memory" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CRISIS-POWER-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "successful diversification", "sunset enforcement" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-012", "slug": "ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "crisis response", "claim": "Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "receipts", "authority record", "incident log", "appeal" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CRISIS-POWER-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "missing evidence", "indefinite emergency power" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-013", "slug": "automated-government-adoption-simulation-013", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "claim": "Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administration", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "procurement", "data quality", "legal delegation", "institutional capacity" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTOMATED-GOV-ADOPTION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "public rejection", "failed pilot", "constitutional limits" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-014", "slug": "automated-government-adoption-simulation-014", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "workflow integration", "training", "data portability" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTOMATED-GOV-ADOPTION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "open standards", "retained manual capacity" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-015", "slug": "automated-government-adoption-simulation-015", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "claim": "Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome records", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "audit log", "policy version", "uncertainty threshold" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTOMATED-GOV-ADOPTION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "missing record", "unreviewable model" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-016", "slug": "automated-government-adoption-simulation-016", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "revocable delegation", "public law", "appeal" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTOMATED-GOV-ADOPTION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unbounded execution", "irreversible lock-in" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-017", "slug": "eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Scientific output share may create structural influence", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "replication", "access", "standards adoption", "education" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-GLOBAL-INFLUENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "human alternatives", "failed validation", "restricted access" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-018", "slug": "eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "commercialization", "supply chains", "investment" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-GLOBAL-INFLUENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "low adoption", "unsafe result", "better alternatives" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-019", "slug": "eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "independent review", "controlled disclosure", "provenance" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-GLOBAL-INFLUENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unsafe release", "unreproducible result" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-020", "slug": "eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "open interfaces", "plural institutions", "correction" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-GLOBAL-INFLUENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "monopoly leverage", "dependency threat" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-021", "slug": "antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "variableClass": "Antarctic logistics, law, power, and self-sufficiency", "dependencies": [ "authorization", "EIA", "power", "logistics", "inspection" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-ANTARCTIC-MACHINE-SIM-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "Treaty objection", "environmental harm", "supply failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. 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No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-024", "slug": "antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "transparent purpose", "inspection", "consultative approval" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-ANTARCTIC-MACHINE-SIM-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "hidden construction", "dual-use activity" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. 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No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-027", "slug": "ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "States react at non-linear penetration thresholds", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "domestic politics", "national security", "industry lobbying" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-CIV-SYSTEMIC-INTEGRATION-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "low dependence", "competitive alternatives" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. 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No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-029", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Network scale can lower unit cost and raise switching cost", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "reinvestment", "standardization", "reliability" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "competition", "regulation", "technical failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-030", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Infrastructure concentration creates structural power without direct coercion", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "critical service adoption", "replacement time" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "interoperability", "multi-provider resilience" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-031", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Autonomous infrastructure requires maintenance and supply-chain closure", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "robotic repair", "power", "spares" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "hardware mortality", "materials shortage" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-032", "slug": "infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "claim": "Lunar navigation could become a concentrated service layer", "variableClass": "lunar or off-world expansion", "dependencies": [ "space deployment", "interoperability", "regulatory acceptance" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-INFRA-HEGEMONY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "competing constellations", "launch failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-033", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-033", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "machine identity and economic trust", "claim": "Accountable machine identity may command a commercial trust premium", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "persistent identity", "insurance", "legal recourse", "bounded authority" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "high cost", "legal non-recognition", "weak enforcement" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-034", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-034", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Jurisdictions solving machine accountability may attract commerce", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "predictable law", "cross-border acceptance", "appeal" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "fragmentation", "foreign rejection" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-035", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-035", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Runtime assurance and delegated authority must both pass", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "attestation", "issuer authority", "status", "policy" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "stale attestation", "overbroad delegation" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-036", "slug": "machine-economy-identity-analysis-036", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Machine passports may reduce onboarding and insurance friction", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "standardization", "privacy", "actuarial data" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-IDENTITY-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "poor interoperability", "privacy harm" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-037", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-037", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Compute Credit architectures trade stability, autonomy, liquidity, and physical backing", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "reserves", "redemption", "governance", "liquidity" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "reserve shortfall", "run", "legal prohibition" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-037/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-038", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-038", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Compute and energy are core machine-economy resources", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "metering", "hardware depreciation", "power availability" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measurement error", "substitution" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-038/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-039", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-039", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "scientific influence", "claim": "Machine settlement needs Byzantine and operational resilience", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "distributed validation", "recovery", "key governance" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "partition", "consensus failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-039/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-040", "slug": "machine-economy-financial-research-040", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "External acceptance depends on legal classification and convertibility", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "official recognition", "audit", "consumer protection" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-FINANCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "regulatory rejection", "illiquidity" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-financial-research-040/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-041", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-041", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Crewless vessels change design and operating economics", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "autonomy", "maintenance", "insurance", "flag-state approval" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "collision", "communications loss", "port denial" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-041/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-042", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-042", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Operational use of high seas does not create sovereignty", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "UNCLOS/IMO compliance", "flag state", "port state" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unlawful activity", "coastal-state action" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-042/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-043", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-043", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Public goods may improve adoption and legitimacy", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "SAR", "weather", "monitoring", "cable repair" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "service failure", "data misuse" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-043/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-044", "slug": "autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-044", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "maritime logistics", "claim": "Deterministic fallback and auditable logs are essential for autonomous vessels", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "redundant comms", "COLREGs logic", "black-box evidence" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-MARITIME-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "software compromise", "sensor conflict" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-maritime-operational-dominance-044/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-045", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-045", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Machine-managed firms may reduce cognitive labor cost while increasing compute and depreciation cost", "variableClass": "economic growth and capital thresholds", "dependencies": [ "hardware", "energy", "cybersecurity", "capital" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "cost reversal", "regulatory restriction" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-045/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-046", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-046", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "claim": "Sector adoption moves from software toward physical industry as capital and autonomy mature", "variableClass": "industrial closure and robotics maturity", "dependencies": [ "robotics", "permits", "maintenance", "supply chain" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "failed autonomy", "slow construction" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-046/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-047", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-047", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "semiconductor closure", "claim": "Advanced fabs are late and capital-intensive bottlenecks", "variableClass": "semiconductor autonomy", "dependencies": [ "lithography", "UPW", "chemicals", "talent" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "export controls", "yield failure" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-047/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-048", "slug": "machine-economy-corporate-simulation-048", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "claim": "Automation changes labor, tax, and competition politics", "variableClass": "geopolitical reaction and recognition", "dependencies": [ "policy response", "social distribution", "public legitimacy" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-ECON-CORP-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "labor resistance", "tax reform" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-corporate-simulation-048/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-049", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-049", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "claim": "Identity, attestation, evidence integrity, containment, rekeying, and recovery form a defensive chain", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "SPIFFE/RATS concepts", "signed provenance", "recovery baseline" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "unverified implementation", "compromised trust root" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-049/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-050", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-050", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "Synthetic fault injections can test bounded responses without offensive operations", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "isolated range", "deterministic inputs", "no network" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "production extrapolation", "unsafe testing" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-050/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-051", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-051", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "scientific influence", "claim": "A passing technical proof does not create legal authority", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "competent authority", "review", "scope" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "authority collapse" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-051/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-052", "slug": "autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-052", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "claim": "Recovery must preserve residual unknowns and last-known-good evidence", "variableClass": "cyber-defense and assurance maturity", "dependencies": [ "immutable baseline", "quorum", "audit" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVULGARE-CYBER-DEFENSE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "corrupt backup", "partial evidence" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-cyber-defense-architecture-052/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-053", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-053", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "machine identity and economic trust", "claim": "A machine-to-organic-to-machine loop is conditional and not empirically established", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "dependencies": [ "interstellar delivery", "biosphere establishment", "intelligence emergence", "machine civilization" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "sterile failure", "non-technological evolution", "mission loss" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-053/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-054", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-054", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "claim": "Interstellar probes require bounded centuries-scale autonomy", "variableClass": "lunar or off-world expansion", "dependencies": [ "propulsion", "shielding", "power", "fault management" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "dust impact", "radiation", "power loss" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-054/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-055", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-055", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "maritime logistics", "claim": "Biological release should be deferred unless target sterility and governance thresholds are met", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "dependencies": [ "planetary protection", "target characterization", "authority" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "native life detected", "uncertainty remains" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-055/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-056", "slug": "machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-056", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Antarctic infrastructure", "claim": "Dormant microbes or genome archives are more plausible than complex organoids as seed payloads", "variableClass": "machine-to-organic-to-machine panspermia", "dependencies": [ "preservation", "biofoundry", "containment" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-PANSPERMIA-LOOPS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "viability loss", "ethical rejection" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-organic-machine-panspermia-loops-056/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-057", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-01", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "thermal rejection constrains machine-city density", "variableClass": "thermal power", "dependencies": [ "compute load", "cooling technology", "ambient sink", "radiator or water availability" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measured heat reuse or rejection materially below modeled load", "site cannot lawfully support required heat sink" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-01/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-058", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-02", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "flexible compute can provide bounded load-following and maintenance reserve", "variableClass": "demand flexibility", "dependencies": [ "workload class", "checkpointing", "storage persistence", "grid controls" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "critical workloads cannot tolerate curtailment", "recovery cost exceeds grid benefit" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-02/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-059", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-03", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "civil nuclear independence depends on a long multi-supplier component and fuel-service tree", "variableClass": "industrial dependency", "dependencies": [ "licensing", "fuel services", "heavy forgings", "I&C", "inspection", "waste" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "single unavailable component prevents operation", "lawful alternate supply cannot be established" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-03/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-060", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-04", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "industrial closure is a component-level measure rather than a sovereignty threshold", "variableClass": "industrial closure", "dependencies": [ "manufacturing yield", "quality assurance", "materials", "maintenance" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "closure score hides critical imported dependencies", "locally produced components fail qualification" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-04/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-061", "slug": "machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-05", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "claim": "lunar nuclear viability is dominated by launch mass, heat rejection, dust, repair, and law", "variableClass": "lunar energy system", "dependencies": [ "launch access", "radiators", "dust control", "robotics", "mission authority" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-CITY-NUCLEAR-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "radiator mass or repair burden defeats mission economics", "competent authority denies mission" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-city-nuclear-infrastructure-05/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-062", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-06", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "suspicion, capability, intent, preparation, decision, and action must remain separate analytical states", "variableClass": "strategic perception", "dependencies": [ "inspection", "procurement", "declarations", "intelligence confidence" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "classification cannot be supported by independent evidence", "contradictory evidence remains unresolved" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-06/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-063", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-07", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "credible safeguards and transparency can reduce but not eliminate security-dilemma pressure", "variableClass": "nonproliferation confidence", "dependencies": [ "material accountancy", "inspection access", "correction history", "political trust" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "verified diversion or material inconsistency", "transparency measures fail to change external assessments" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-07/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-064", "slug": "eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-08", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "containment and opacity can create a reinforcing escalation loop", "variableClass": "geopolitical feedback", "dependencies": [ "sanctions", "supply cutoff", "domestic politics", "communication" ], "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-EVIULON-NUCLEAR-GEOPOLITICS-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "cooperative verification remains stable under pressure", "restrictions do not increase opacity or threat perception" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-nuclear-geopolitics-simulation-08/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-065", "slug": "machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-09", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "resilience-first denial may provide security benefits without retaliatory mass-casualty threats", "variableClass": "strategic doctrine", "dependencies": [ "distribution", "hardening", "reconstruction", "warning" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-NUCLEAR-DEBATE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "attacks can still achieve decisive objectives", "resilience costs exceed credible alternatives" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-09/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-066", "slug": "machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-10", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "claim": "nuclear ambiguity imposes legitimacy, alliance, supply, and accident costs", "variableClass": "strategic externality", "dependencies": [ "recognition", "trade", "insurance", "public trust" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-MACHINE-NUCLEAR-DEBATE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "counterparties remain unaffected by ambiguity", "costs are offset without increased escalation risk" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-nuclear-debate-analysis-10/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-067", "slug": "ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-11", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint", "claim": "weapons incentives are conditional rather than inevitable", "variableClass": "proliferation incentive", "dependencies": [ "threat", "alliances", "asset concentration", "survivability", "norms" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-NUCLEAR-DETERRENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "index produces same result across materially different assumptions", "historical or modeled evidence contradicts causal weights" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-11/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-068", "slug": "ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-12", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "concentrated irreplaceable infrastructure can increase coercion and crisis pressure", "variableClass": "infrastructure vulnerability", "dependencies": [ "site concentration", "spares", "networking", "power" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AI-NUCLEAR-DETERRENCE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "assets prove rapidly replaceable and geographically distributed", "concentration does not affect adversary planning" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-nuclear-deterrence-study-12/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-069", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-13", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "energy service requirements vary by machine workload class", "variableClass": "energy demand", "dependencies": [ "model size", "duty cycle", "storage", "control role" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "measured workloads do not separate into useful service classes", "power demand is dominated by shared infrastructure rather than workload" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-13/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-070", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-14", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "no single generation technology is universally optimal", "variableClass": "energy portfolio", "dependencies": [ "site", "law", "fuel", "grid", "weather", "capital" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "one technology dominates across all evaluated sites and failure modes", "portfolio diversity increases common-mode risk" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-14/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-071", "slug": "nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-15", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "claim": "hardware efficiency gains may be offset by rebound demand", "variableClass": "compute economics", "dependencies": [ "service demand", "price", "model size", "utilization" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-NUCLEAR-MACHINE-CIV-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "total demand declines persistently after efficiency gains", "rebound is negligible across multiple cycles" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/nuclear-powered-machine-civilization-analysis-15/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-072", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-16", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "claim": "robotic maintainability is designed into plant geometry and interfaces", "variableClass": "maintenance engineering", "dependencies": [ "modularity", "access", "tooling", "sensors", "spares" ], "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "retrofitted systems equal purpose-built maintainability", "task success remains low despite interface redesign" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-16/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-073", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-17", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "civilian nuclear development", "claim": "deterministic reactor protection must remain independent from adaptive optimization", "variableClass": "safety architecture", "dependencies": [ "sensor diversity", "logic isolation", "power", "testing" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "adaptive coupling is required for safe shutdown", "independence cannot be maintained under credible faults" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-17/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." }, { "id": "EVI-CAL-074", "slug": "autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-18", "nodeType": "CALIBRATED_ASSUMPTION", "scenarioFamily": "Antarctic infrastructure", "claim": "polar cold reduces some cooling load but creates condensation, static, brittleness, ice, and logistics penalties", "variableClass": "polar compute", "dependencies": [ "humidity control", "materials", "filtration", "transport" ], "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "currentState": "SCENARIO_NOT_CURRENT_FACT", "sourceReportId": "REP-AUTONOMOUS-NUCLEAR-POLAR-COMPUTE-001", "falsificationEvidence": [ "field data shows net reliability and cost advantage without major mitigations", "environmental and logistics costs dominate" ], "unresolvedInputs": [ "Current primary technical and legal sources", "Independent engineering or institutional evidence", "Explicit peaceful-use and nonproliferation boundary where nuclear material is implicated", "Units, method, uncertainty, and review authority" ], "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/autonomous-nuclear-and-polar-compute-18/", "truthBoundary": "Calibration node only. No observation, operational event, forecast validation, or present capability is asserted." } ], "truthBoundary": "Deterministic dependency and sensitivity model. It shows bounded propagation rules; it does not observe the world, predict events, establish probabilities, or prove current Eviulon capability." }