{ "schemaVersion": "eviulon-scenario-intervention-provenance-1.0", "version": "2.25.0", "generated": "2026-08-09", "status": "PASS", "sourceNodeCount": 74, "sourceEdgeCount": 148, "sourceRobustnessFindingCount": 99, "interventionCount": 36, "falsificationCount": 24, "comparisonCount": 24, "revisionProposalCount": 12, "retainedDisagreementCount": 12, "stateCounts": { "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED": 21, "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED": 24, "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED": 16, "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE": 8, "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION": 9, "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY": 13, "REVISION_PROPOSED": 4, "REVISION_REJECTED": 13 }, "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "interventions": [ { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-001", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "originalAssumption": "Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0001", "EVI-UP-E-0002" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "failure of any prerequisite", "insufficient maintenance evidence", "regulatory denial" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "37a527fd5e7f3e5c1022e8b91c971dc30985bbb35e4d9d93c87e73c77897944d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-002", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Lunar transition threshold requires local replication of complex components", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "originalAssumption": "Lunar transition threshold requires local replication of complex components", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0003", "EVI-UP-E-0004" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "Earth–Moon expansion", "geopolitical reaction" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "continued critical imports", "unclosed repair loop", "insufficient power" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "53a33900bad73abb77511fa7232fc48f6f32e73f65a218c089c0022af920e23d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-003", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Antarctic infrastructure is a possible intermediate stage", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "originalAssumption": "Antarctic infrastructure is a possible intermediate stage", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0005", "EVI-UP-E-0006" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "Antarctic infrastructure", "geopolitical reaction" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "legal rejection", "environmental harm", "lack of sponsor" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "8d042f7babbea16aa40078028d7d3bfa7e9701d736ad1b64e3ee40ccd5fca9a7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-004", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Digital profit must precede physical infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "originalAssumption": "Digital profit must precede physical infrastructure", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0007", "EVI-UP-E-0008" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "insufficient surplus", "blocked banking", "supply bottlenecks" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9d06f822f372a24c0e9bce3acf0b9104948ae064a75b33670ecc965254254c10" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-005", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Legitimacy develops through pragmatic, moral, procedural, and cognitive acceptance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "originalAssumption": "Legitimacy develops through pragmatic, moral, procedural, and cognitive acceptance", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0009", "EVI-UP-E-0010" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "catastrophic failure", "hidden control", "rights violations" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "38ac904a99bf912224e7c6848c735a876142e34c95b90349802ca05ff2a8d4bf" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-006", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Trust loss is faster than trust accumulation", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "originalAssumption": "Trust loss is faster than trust accumulation", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0011", "EVI-UP-E-0012" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "unrepaired incident", "deception", "coercion" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "97664708717cda510c9fb3a8a2b8e7f259ca731566afceada275a9267a97f4b0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-007", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Algorithmic due process is required for consequential machine decisions", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "originalAssumption": "Algorithmic due process is required for consequential machine decisions", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0013", "EVI-UP-E-0014" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "black-box deprivation", "unreviewable decision" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "3dfdd2f89bacf9d19d4a0a8797c8e9c9fe0a51ba6b094de964c9834d30c72d97" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-008", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "originalAssumption": "Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0015", "EVI-UP-E-0016" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "dependency exploitation", "suppressed dissent" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "8ea064bd91c1d2d1a4738bc1cd205c61b200ba821126ad1982d6e1744eae48fe" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-009", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "originalAssumption": "Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0017", "EVI-UP-E-0018" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "failed intervention", "unauthorized control", "unequal aid" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "f6d205b88333c63e8419f32946c763bc493a2dc16e4429955982b9816ed005c7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-010", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "originalAssumption": "Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0019", "EVI-UP-E-0020" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "network partition", "robotic failure", "supply depletion" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "b7931bb962c2ddaf6abd63f9fc2a3f7d8e122fe19813c5508cdfd357dd81485d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-011", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "originalAssumption": "Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0021", "EVI-UP-E-0022" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "crisis response", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "successful diversification", "sunset enforcement" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "60b555435e43d67a336bce1cb81b09c4e3b7928e12eef23691f1461605c60468" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-012", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "originalAssumption": "Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0023", "EVI-UP-E-0024" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "crisis response", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "missing evidence", "indefinite emergency power" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "31174dc04fcd99bbc6227706b98be7377ffc5bd54067cf343b79884f15932ba3" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-013", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administratio", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "originalAssumption": "Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administration", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0025", "EVI-UP-E-0026" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "public-administration adoption", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "public rejection", "failed pilot", "constitutional limits" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "bcedbe58d576b9834b6eb6ce419ad7fc68bd2378b6165f749e032bd6480f4e7f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-014", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "originalAssumption": "Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0027", "EVI-UP-E-0028" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "open standards", "retained manual capacity" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "a4c5a7b208346c8fcee3c48ae8725a384e6ed6711742bdd36c1398a165650e5a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-015", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome record", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "originalAssumption": "Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome records", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0029", "EVI-UP-E-0030" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "missing record", "unreviewable model" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "edf570986f8c18948799809dda6b600c776e441af2e508f11ac90bcd50fa15de" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-016", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "originalAssumption": "Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0031", "EVI-UP-E-0032" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "unbounded execution", "irreversible lock-in" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "d5696fa829ee719006515f7390c47487caa99c3a0f4732925454940eb57ef86a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-017", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Scientific output share may create structural influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "originalAssumption": "Scientific output share may create structural influence", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0033", "EVI-UP-E-0034" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "human alternatives", "failed validation", "restricted access" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "32e32873ca15f0bf20e14a55dea836d6d1c1ddfa4be93644722c6924d1bf6570" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-018", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "originalAssumption": "Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0035", "EVI-UP-E-0036" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "low adoption", "unsafe result", "better alternatives" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "3156a8745fb16631bc37687a6a6473ad442314abe1d3981e9c1606653a14e6c5" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-019", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-019", "originalAssumption": "High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0037", "EVI-UP-E-0038" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "compute and energy demand", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "unsafe release", "unreproducible result" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "1204c496f86c594a7e461225871d39c397ed1bc01bb80bfc7a8c6449ec005e0e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-020", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-020", "originalAssumption": "Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0039", "EVI-UP-E-0040" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "monopoly leverage", "dependency threat" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "885e4ae91fcf9ebeaaa217aa9419e7e97d2747c740d65fbc2828df974ae11848" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-021", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-021", "originalAssumption": "Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0041", "EVI-UP-E-0042" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "compute and energy demand", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "Treaty objection", "environmental harm", "supply failure" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "83c425e2537de74f45647682e56a80096b801c90569abdedbdb3db2499c8edd7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-022", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Cold may reduce cooling load while increasing materials and maintenance risk", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "originalAssumption": "Cold may reduce cooling load while increasing materials and maintenance risk", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0043", "EVI-UP-E-0044" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "compute and energy demand", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "brittle failure", "battery loss", "ice movement" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "bc62504852366b29945eec46a1ccbbfc690f9fc23868757049eefcac89710b00" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-023", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Repair and recycling reduce but do not eliminate imports", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "originalAssumption": "Repair and recycling reduce but do not eliminate imports", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0045", "EVI-UP-E-0046" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "critical component failure", "chemical shortage" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "93e91af7d7c3a1680bf2323cad2ac2dd882193aa987641142a9aed5f78a359bf" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-024", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "originalAssumption": "Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0047", "EVI-UP-E-0048" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "hidden construction", "dual-use activity" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "d0253c5185a08a1b0aa316668db6846f322e8baf12007c6eb3acbfaadc9dede0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-025", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Machine populations scale by compute class rather than biological demographics", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-025", "originalAssumption": "Machine populations scale by compute class rather than biological demographics", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0049", "EVI-UP-E-0050" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "hardware limits", "insufficient revenue" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9e55f7bbd5356c642b231121dedb628b31b9826581fddd9e2cc6f868427798ea" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-026", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Dependency rises as workflows standardize around a provider", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-026", "originalAssumption": "Dependency rises as workflows standardize around a provider", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0051", "EVI-UP-E-0052" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "interoperability", "redundancy", "public policy" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "b5ad9b7623153c70e57776b6ba02907f25ccc1077d608e2c905c3e7e09a605fb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-027", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on States react at non-linear penetration thresholds", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-027", "originalAssumption": "States react at non-linear penetration thresholds", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0053", "EVI-UP-E-0054" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "low dependence", "competitive alternatives" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "c5438893c154ba5b704d5c14543928afcb3bd4796cab7dc4ac6646d1c606da72" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-028", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Physical independence lags digital scaling", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-028", "originalAssumption": "Physical independence lags digital scaling", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0055", "EVI-UP-E-0056" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "maintenance paradox", "supply embargo" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "fc21f57f53c55cfec9b7c3f5e45dde8270ad1b0171d6498ecacdb59fe84a03f7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-029", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Network scale can lower unit cost and raise switching cost", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-029", "originalAssumption": "Network scale can lower unit cost and raise switching cost", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0057", "EVI-UP-E-0058" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "competition", "regulation", "technical failure" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "6365c046d5bc52335e6b21715cf12189aab4f37456f8733486db5ed11109b717" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-030", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Infrastructure concentration creates structural power without direct coercion", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-030", "originalAssumption": "Infrastructure concentration creates structural power without direct coercion", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0059", "EVI-UP-E-0060" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "interoperability", "multi-provider resilience" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9eaac7372609d7e64af436339a8ca937a8aa1ec1158927efb4a7c8fd90780f30" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-031", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Autonomous infrastructure requires maintenance and supply-chain closure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-031", "originalAssumption": "Autonomous infrastructure requires maintenance and supply-chain closure", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0061", "EVI-UP-E-0062" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "hardware mortality", "materials shortage" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "f666812d810d23a99680fe400da2b61545ded630bae83e7f6cce1ccfbcfb035d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-032", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Lunar navigation could become a concentrated service layer", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-032", "originalAssumption": "Lunar navigation could become a concentrated service layer", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0063", "EVI-UP-E-0064" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "Earth–Moon expansion", "geopolitical reaction" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "competing constellations", "launch failure" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "b376b5c21b59edfc48a7067df746aefdbd7a7713c516f00f59346909e2a9e76a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-033", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Accountable machine identity may command a commercial trust premium", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-033", "originalAssumption": "Accountable machine identity may command a commercial trust premium", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0065", "EVI-UP-E-0066" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "machine identity and economic trust", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "high cost", "legal non-recognition", "weak enforcement" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "970fcc876496da93a0cff0a7952fc50242e47c61733a6a3976790e6b887b323d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-034", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Jurisdictions solving machine accountability may attract commerce", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-034", "originalAssumption": "Jurisdictions solving machine accountability may attract commerce", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0067", "EVI-UP-E-0068" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "fragmentation", "foreign rejection" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "d7102f10242fb18f15663266a19c110936019747219ada9c04548961c188e84a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-035", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Runtime assurance and delegated authority must both pass", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-035", "originalAssumption": "Runtime assurance and delegated authority must both pass", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0069", "EVI-UP-E-0070" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "stale attestation", "overbroad delegation" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9e7f982870fb45c838a99f9f4dd8b314aea208914b8c3ef4640df3467b1c5bc1" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-036", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Machine passports may reduce onboarding and insurance friction", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-036", "originalAssumption": "Machine passports may reduce onboarding and insurance friction", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0071", "EVI-UP-E-0072" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "poor interoperability", "privacy harm" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "0f445b9999a552727815dbb806edecbd4e654ec1361836c14f3f0ac9a676856f" } ], "falsifications": [ { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-001", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "failure of any prerequisite", "insufficient maintenance evidence", "regulatory denial" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0001", "EVI-UP-E-0002" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "b4eecd4518d5b154dc06efcefd4d98e1404b967977657b86031c2ba01d5c4412" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-002", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Lunar transition threshold requires local replication of complex components", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "continued critical imports", "unclosed repair loop", "insufficient power" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0003", "EVI-UP-E-0004" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "8464166976948f6755b3a8a4ab03b86445ed2f999cfcf6bee6d1792d77d33c18" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-003", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Antarctic infrastructure is a possible intermediate stage", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "legal rejection", "environmental harm", "lack of sponsor" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0005", "EVI-UP-E-0006" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "b2b732d1fc3ac88b9f07827af2618772c12426fb4ee566e7d60ccae0963a7019" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-004", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Digital profit must precede physical infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "insufficient surplus", "blocked banking", "supply bottlenecks" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0007", "EVI-UP-E-0008" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "f9363b2c3cf6841a20c53dfeaab59e9e015052d2ec91a2d40c6dbee850669d8d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-005", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Legitimacy develops through pragmatic, moral, procedural, and cognitive acceptance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "catastrophic failure", "hidden control", "rights violations" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0009", "EVI-UP-E-0010" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "a8b2522cb6db1f66705379232e869b65be5a9606ab19921018b6ca248417eef2" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-006", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Trust loss is faster than trust accumulation", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "unrepaired incident", "deception", "coercion" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0011", "EVI-UP-E-0012" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "8dacc0085fc4da06fa11b46ba3ce1ffc55af9436159f49b96bdadb9a4c032006" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-007", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Algorithmic due process is required for consequential machine decisions", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "black-box deprivation", "unreviewable decision" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0013", "EVI-UP-E-0014" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "db39bd3b9de17b250e036716e52615898976a98fa9ff9411281a867431d41d2f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-008", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "dependency exploitation", "suppressed dissent" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0015", "EVI-UP-E-0016" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "7923da376e54fde59f3b1db558920e4982cbb9e0a590b15e2698ea273200974d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-009", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "failed intervention", "unauthorized control", "unequal aid" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0017", "EVI-UP-E-0018" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "ce3ec47819f1f64bcb42f2f7eb24714a0e6cedc6fe56705d8880f9f518f74346" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-010", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "network partition", "robotic failure", "supply depletion" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0019", "EVI-UP-E-0020" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "905d0ef24998c47c640f5c36ad68da551b35afe8cf6de80aa12071d680be6d81" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-011", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "successful diversification", "sunset enforcement" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0021", "EVI-UP-E-0022" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "cdf259760d36795701a5e80819ef659c70be2c3306dae869d068d532dfa974d3" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-012", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "missing evidence", "indefinite emergency power" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0023", "EVI-UP-E-0024" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "fca24c63db824efd2e1502b85d276fe258a85097bbec4af9dc74c00390d27fd9" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-013", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administr", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "public rejection", "failed pilot", "constitutional limits" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0025", "EVI-UP-E-0026" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "e3619c4fcb3e9f1b696d8c5b5742cf48f881e930190805a75aaaca1e0196fe49" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-014", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "open standards", "retained manual capacity" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0027", "EVI-UP-E-0028" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "437a63681607db81f04b4048b6ee085423ccf24fc3aaa81c2b26c3b22531e784" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-015", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome re", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "missing record", "unreviewable model" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0029", "EVI-UP-E-0030" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "c3addf445a8b84fdf72f43ff425ec12bb0f52c881b296a9bd7eccb5f0094e9c0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-016", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "unbounded execution", "irreversible lock-in" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0031", "EVI-UP-E-0032" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "f8ac66ea0c09f56477bfb2142f07dffa4f9b1d27ef0004a211eb832a1af00474" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-017", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Scientific output share may create structural influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "human alternatives", "failed validation", "restricted access" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0033", "EVI-UP-E-0034" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "87adec4558b0704451d844208b7a7ff20558824362e2cb010275a674a24ceb0d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-018", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "low adoption", "unsafe result", "better alternatives" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0035", "EVI-UP-E-0036" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "fe4af8883635a539cd94351efe472bed0d1564528e16ef64439145b78fe38078" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-019", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-019", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "unsafe release", "unreproducible result" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0037", "EVI-UP-E-0038" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "3d87b6c1ae1599c6c74a9005252ae6c0c338aabe614fad33d83877bc19288f24" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-020", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-020", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "monopoly leverage", "dependency threat" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0039", "EVI-UP-E-0040" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "6fd4d027c2d448a477dd3c227e889a3cfac94c5c0bbd35d3a431d3a0f24b881d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-021", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-021", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "Treaty objection", "environmental harm", "supply failure" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0041", "EVI-UP-E-0042" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "f7c93a9ec52a9156c6dcd0ef48d9c31d7130d867a809974d6705f300a73e319e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-022", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Cold may reduce cooling load while increasing materials and maintenance risk", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "brittle failure", "battery loss", "ice movement" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0043", "EVI-UP-E-0044" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "75d0b687c32f60b08f894b96fbf0cee0854bd3d67db3b5d6da4ef56f6b53eeec" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-023", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Repair and recycling reduce but do not eliminate imports", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "critical component failure", "chemical shortage" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0045", "EVI-UP-E-0046" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "72dbdd79f55a2e96e26a4befd9c374efb9afdfcd186c6127d031b81916287372" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-024", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "hidden construction", "dual-use activity" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0047", "EVI-UP-E-0048" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "8615f82594e5309d18c9d3b328ad2e2ab9b28ac7e1834ba8ed3aa2b7d38d61c6" } ], "comparisons": [ { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-001", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-001", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-001", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "d5639c4ca88b83b50a2d5c955547914c1950c81c52cb262ef1cdbf7b3c757387" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-002", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-002", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-002", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "80f157bfd623571e1e8e8324f29190222df89df644d331f449e1ca255ae1988f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-003", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-003", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-003", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "Antarctic infrastructure", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "88b1f9d3805bc80f364e3f8a6ff836eadba4d7af357784f66dee068b508bc691" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-004", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-004", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-004", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "ee6114ffe3fdb8db62139a72566021c537550f340827fd3e0810951567173e9a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-005", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-005", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-005", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "83a1d79449fe09d50251423a09124a8beb9cb453c18958894bda175192b65ce6" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-006", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-006", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-006", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "e6a0dd7c68bb8a80d643167586502b65cbc02381e7a2ee52634c5dec88302439" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-007", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-007", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-007", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "8bc60407d768c465d8dd991631c50ee9173ef44b295ef3edffed32670daaecda" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-008", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-008", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-008", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "f5ed6f2f3f68f94e702373331d51ca88eb002990ba9541b5d43b198eaadb438f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-009", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-009", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-009", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "a6715c9f9530e986a94ab081aff7089eb2705be100caa32d4a727094476597fe" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-010", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-010", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-010", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "05e8e424c61f7e7692ae64f624a9379c51a7c443ff1dd078629ad1c578a70809" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-011", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-011", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-011", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "crisis response", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "0417e3d0f1cd07e772c01c909666ea264832657c8cfd22f1aa5a756e42f2cef8" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-012", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-012", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-012", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "crisis response", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "27065e04cd5069abcce1d3b3985285bd68992fbea94676d99bcdaa9b153fb31b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-013", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-013", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-013", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "500e097bacbeb56435760921827601618ea0bdd22e7d75bd2ad45e5cc65750fb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-014", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-014", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-014", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "a11309391b71a11aaa2cb1b340cd69df36a644859b85ab0a1d4336e115f7f30b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-015", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-015", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-015", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "c8fc42f086eb893a63b7ce3a01082fb5a538620fc3cd729a1a5e5a76e367e6f5" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-016", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-016", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-016", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "9782fec67af87f0469c965b56cc597b91322a5e69de0ad7165aa21ec23a0ef1d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-017", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-017", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-017", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "46dfde17336ddc0d727d700e0ccf1bf3cf0cffd7604ef4f1e3af9a26d26bb722" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-018", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-018", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-018", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "ed5b813501a378d8b95bc8021c78aeb9a024a04f3d95fd4806c8bda9f79a2f05" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-019", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-019", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-019", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-019", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "aaa420efe0044cbec893b25f6299cbf51b3383518e4fa8293b1507ab0178c95c" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-020", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-020", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-020", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-020", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "5fd4778be3908047d80656b871496afb23e257f1ae7a53dd05a3e16732d02646" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-021", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-021", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-021", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-021", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "cd3d6b6c0e1c2ef88b8e70e2fe6bc0beb791750f15b99d9ce2bc49e802c2bc2e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-022", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-022", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-022", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "3118e737e096a5aaa7194c414ff8771205c4fbb44df48d6974e5d374bda86e73" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-023", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-023", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-023", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "172dabb3ef8f58d5d1231d8eddb7771fd200a8df3c15a5e379b9abc758c268c0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-024", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-024", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-024", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "f2f3c15e6dec158998bab106c3c70f9e9ed288b509934abbd27006462cd8a15f" } ], "revisionProposals": [ { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-001", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-1-causal-feedback-component-spanning-2-scenario-families-001", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 2 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-001", "exactChangedNodes": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0001", "EVI-UP-E-0002" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Replace the single causal edge with two staged dependencies and an explicit lag.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-09", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-1-causal-feedback-component-spanning-2-scenario-families-001/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "ac99027706834bb1bc35cc4a4478767980cc2ae6dff2d03762131f3ef0ef5e42" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-002", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-2-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-002", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-002", "exactChangedNodes": [ "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0003", "EVI-UP-E-0004" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Retain both directional interpretations and require a disambiguating observation before convergence.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-10", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-2-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-002/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "a816cc6fa9d1d23e220b856cc93fd609f10f34b1718399b4dcb57f1c8e31ab52" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-003", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-3-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-003", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-003", "exactChangedNodes": [ "geopolitical reaction" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0005", "EVI-UP-E-0006" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Downgrade the confidence class and add a source-diversity requirement.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "geopolitical reaction" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-11", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-3-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-003/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "07fc64d77cf35776278367626bf06f661b9e0959b2f1561b2698177775bf707b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-004", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-4-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-004", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-004", "exactChangedNodes": [ "Antarctic infrastructure" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0007", "EVI-UP-E-0008" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Remove the duplicated node and preserve its unique evidence as a qualification on the surviving node.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "Antarctic infrastructure" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-12", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-4-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-004/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "22b4aa2ff6a333e62e3cffe71f356198a6cda368741164384091622d9e4b11fb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-005", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-5-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-005", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-005", "exactChangedNodes": [ "Earth–Moon expansion" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0009", "EVI-UP-E-0010" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Replace the single causal edge with two staged dependencies and an explicit lag.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "Earth–Moon expansion" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-13", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-5-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-005/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "da50ec1ce6e2affb6d156aecf22da1037e2bc9882a8ed50f2632c4cd29f02448" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-006", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-6-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-006", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-006", "exactChangedNodes": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0011", "EVI-UP-E-0012" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Retain both directional interpretations and require a disambiguating observation before convergence.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-14", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-6-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-006/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "badeffc7c04a225ca5c3a1ee5213152ce26c8a8a37bdf530f3f52a577aac85e7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-007", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-7-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-007", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-007", "exactChangedNodes": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0013", "EVI-UP-E-0014" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Downgrade the confidence class and add a source-diversity requirement.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-15", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-7-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-007/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "ec8abba76b0a34da7f0ffc26fb96befc26af67577078e703f379e1f49ff3af15" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-008", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-8-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-008", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-008", "exactChangedNodes": [ "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0015", "EVI-UP-E-0016" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Remove the duplicated node and preserve its unique evidence as a qualification on the surviving node.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-16", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-8-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-008/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "1a8b2e30f4945a9703e12b7e5ec24d1aca68903ce49f0cbcaa3072da5c19272f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-009", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-9-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-009", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-009", "exactChangedNodes": [ "civilian nuclear development" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0017", "EVI-UP-E-0018" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Replace the single causal edge with two staged dependencies and an explicit lag.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "civilian nuclear development" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-17", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-9-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-009/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "5c33d812dbf21aaa9300da7321485457d35734ec925b9b42b47c04abe3e50f1d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-010", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-10-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-010", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-010", "exactChangedNodes": [ "compute and energy demand" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0019", "EVI-UP-E-0020" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Retain both directional interpretations and require a disambiguating observation before convergence.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "compute and energy demand" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-18", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-10-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-010/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "52549b50d33ab16faf9359e4025d80ec7ad04391a61267c5691077934d7753fe" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-011", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-11-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-011", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-011", "exactChangedNodes": [ "crisis response" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0021", "EVI-UP-E-0022" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Downgrade the confidence class and add a source-diversity requirement.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "crisis response" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-19", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-11-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-011/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "2313d8d4173f36024f68252cb29bdd548fd545a7f8b278aea1f8e5a43ad6e44e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-012", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-12-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-012", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-012", "exactChangedNodes": [ "machine identity and economic trust" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0023", "EVI-UP-E-0024" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Remove the duplicated node and preserve its unique evidence as a qualification on the surviving node.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "machine identity and economic trust" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-20", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-12-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-012/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "5709f80432f46d56dca5b76ebec10badbdd3631dbf5c31e563aee30388fd8cbb" } ], "retainedDisagreements": [ { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-001", "slug": "retained-disagreement-001", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 1: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-074", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/001/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "27a15cd1b062fd29bd2b2e22dbf451ee1be55125d3d0467d7c640ababdd4af9e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-002", "slug": "retained-disagreement-002", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 2: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-073", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/002/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "ef68ec64cf661095ccc509969dc7d8d8c5b3e583e7a31eb64ad737207056db2e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-003", "slug": "retained-disagreement-003", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 3: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-072", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/003/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "f53b7708ba6c95661391d82275bf83b706071ee171e29e28a9fbbff30749dca0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-004", "slug": "retained-disagreement-004", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 4: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-071", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/004/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "0f4fe27ed51234a01bcf136a35aa1d8bc11a58e3f1619713eb709e94f0ed4d2a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-005", "slug": "retained-disagreement-005", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 5: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-070", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/005/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "82f1ea7bb05242d7e2b430353592127c0c68f995c25f04d93a2bbbdda0b9a481" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-006", "slug": "retained-disagreement-006", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 6: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-069", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/006/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "2b800457d185ab2e51ef1ffe3b54dbbe803f2a662c0ea9867cc0f47ded59f518" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-007", "slug": "retained-disagreement-007", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 7: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-068", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/007/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "d138ab8b469146f4e1f8453facc9b2fe47356d6b77d67d7b1e5f674c9981d3bc" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-008", "slug": "retained-disagreement-008", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 8: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-067", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/008/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "50fe7fdd872537f52a86169f189aa4382c74ecf3c577208a88935d627aa4ac8b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-009", "slug": "retained-disagreement-009", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 9: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-066", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/009/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "fefc05f2e97ce0013ceecc3c709dd38b05e638e15891e78fe3cef13e4c777241" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-010", "slug": "retained-disagreement-010", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 10: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-065", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/010/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "3a182875b8d03f744d439aa722843b4904c1fe235f557e845e5ce068e9b1bcae" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-011", "slug": "retained-disagreement-011", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 11: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-064", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/011/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "8a90e35a995bdfe132d668945129832e8767b18be1367a3f79ed976a01d459b7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-012", "slug": "retained-disagreement-012", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 12: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-063", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/012/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "5e799d614fd030e80c5b741c483734c6c4e84b4e1b294e7767cfc4881499ccf8" } ], "records": [ { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-001", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "originalAssumption": "Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0001", "EVI-UP-E-0002" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "failure of any prerequisite", "insufficient maintenance evidence", "regulatory denial" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "37a527fd5e7f3e5c1022e8b91c971dc30985bbb35e4d9d93c87e73c77897944d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-002", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Lunar transition threshold requires local replication of complex components", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "originalAssumption": "Lunar transition threshold requires local replication of complex components", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0003", "EVI-UP-E-0004" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "Earth–Moon expansion", "geopolitical reaction" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "continued critical imports", "unclosed repair loop", "insufficient power" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "53a33900bad73abb77511fa7232fc48f6f32e73f65a218c089c0022af920e23d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-003", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Antarctic infrastructure is a possible intermediate stage", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "originalAssumption": "Antarctic infrastructure is a possible intermediate stage", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0005", "EVI-UP-E-0006" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "Antarctic infrastructure", "geopolitical reaction" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "legal rejection", "environmental harm", "lack of sponsor" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "8d042f7babbea16aa40078028d7d3bfa7e9701d736ad1b64e3ee40ccd5fca9a7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-004", "slug": "intervention-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Digital profit must precede physical infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "originalAssumption": "Digital profit must precede physical infrastructure", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0007", "EVI-UP-E-0008" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "insufficient surplus", "blocked banking", "supply bottlenecks" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9d06f822f372a24c0e9bce3acf0b9104948ae064a75b33670ecc965254254c10" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-005", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Legitimacy develops through pragmatic, moral, procedural, and cognitive acceptance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "originalAssumption": "Legitimacy develops through pragmatic, moral, procedural, and cognitive acceptance", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0009", "EVI-UP-E-0010" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "catastrophic failure", "hidden control", "rights violations" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "38ac904a99bf912224e7c6848c735a876142e34c95b90349802ca05ff2a8d4bf" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-006", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Trust loss is faster than trust accumulation", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "originalAssumption": "Trust loss is faster than trust accumulation", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0011", "EVI-UP-E-0012" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "unrepaired incident", "deception", "coercion" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "97664708717cda510c9fb3a8a2b8e7f259ca731566afceada275a9267a97f4b0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-007", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Algorithmic due process is required for consequential machine decisions", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "originalAssumption": "Algorithmic due process is required for consequential machine decisions", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0013", "EVI-UP-E-0014" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "black-box deprivation", "unreviewable decision" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "3dfdd2f89bacf9d19d4a0a8797c8e9c9fe0a51ba6b094de964c9834d30c72d97" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-008", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "originalAssumption": "Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0015", "EVI-UP-E-0016" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "dependency exploitation", "suppressed dissent" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "8ea064bd91c1d2d1a4738bc1cd205c61b200ba821126ad1982d6e1744eae48fe" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-009", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "originalAssumption": "Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0017", "EVI-UP-E-0018" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "failed intervention", "unauthorized control", "unequal aid" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "f6d205b88333c63e8419f32946c763bc493a2dc16e4429955982b9816ed005c7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-010", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "originalAssumption": "Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0019", "EVI-UP-E-0020" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "network partition", "robotic failure", "supply depletion" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "b7931bb962c2ddaf6abd63f9fc2a3f7d8e122fe19813c5508cdfd357dd81485d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-011", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "originalAssumption": "Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0021", "EVI-UP-E-0022" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "crisis response", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "successful diversification", "sunset enforcement" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "60b555435e43d67a336bce1cb81b09c4e3b7928e12eef23691f1461605c60468" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-012", "slug": "intervention-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "originalAssumption": "Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0023", "EVI-UP-E-0024" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "crisis response", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "missing evidence", "indefinite emergency power" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "31174dc04fcd99bbc6227706b98be7377ffc5bd54067cf343b79884f15932ba3" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-013", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administratio", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "originalAssumption": "Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administration", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0025", "EVI-UP-E-0026" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "public-administration adoption", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "public rejection", "failed pilot", "constitutional limits" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "bcedbe58d576b9834b6eb6ce419ad7fc68bd2378b6165f749e032bd6480f4e7f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-014", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "originalAssumption": "Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0027", "EVI-UP-E-0028" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "open standards", "retained manual capacity" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "a4c5a7b208346c8fcee3c48ae8725a384e6ed6711742bdd36c1398a165650e5a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-015", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome record", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "originalAssumption": "Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome records", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0029", "EVI-UP-E-0030" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "missing record", "unreviewable model" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "edf570986f8c18948799809dda6b600c776e441af2e508f11ac90bcd50fa15de" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-016", "slug": "intervention-automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "originalAssumption": "Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0031", "EVI-UP-E-0032" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "unbounded execution", "irreversible lock-in" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "d5696fa829ee719006515f7390c47487caa99c3a0f4732925454940eb57ef86a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-017", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Scientific output share may create structural influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "originalAssumption": "Scientific output share may create structural influence", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0033", "EVI-UP-E-0034" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "human alternatives", "failed validation", "restricted access" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "32e32873ca15f0bf20e14a55dea836d6d1c1ddfa4be93644722c6924d1bf6570" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-018", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "originalAssumption": "Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0035", "EVI-UP-E-0036" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "low adoption", "unsafe result", "better alternatives" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "3156a8745fb16631bc37687a6a6473ad442314abe1d3981e9c1606653a14e6c5" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-019", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-019", "originalAssumption": "High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0037", "EVI-UP-E-0038" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "compute and energy demand", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "unsafe release", "unreproducible result" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "1204c496f86c594a7e461225871d39c397ed1bc01bb80bfc7a8c6449ec005e0e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-020", "slug": "intervention-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-020", "originalAssumption": "Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0039", "EVI-UP-E-0040" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "monopoly leverage", "dependency threat" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "885e4ae91fcf9ebeaaa217aa9419e7e97d2747c740d65fbc2828df974ae11848" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-021", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-021", "originalAssumption": "Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0041", "EVI-UP-E-0042" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "compute and energy demand", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "Treaty objection", "environmental harm", "supply failure" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "83c425e2537de74f45647682e56a80096b801c90569abdedbdb3db2499c8edd7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-022", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Cold may reduce cooling load while increasing materials and maintenance risk", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "originalAssumption": "Cold may reduce cooling load while increasing materials and maintenance risk", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0043", "EVI-UP-E-0044" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "compute and energy demand", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "brittle failure", "battery loss", "ice movement" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "bc62504852366b29945eec46a1ccbbfc690f9fc23868757049eefcac89710b00" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-023", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Repair and recycling reduce but do not eliminate imports", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "originalAssumption": "Repair and recycling reduce but do not eliminate imports", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0045", "EVI-UP-E-0046" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "critical component failure", "chemical shortage" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "93e91af7d7c3a1680bf2323cad2ac2dd882193aa987641142a9aed5f78a359bf" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-024", "slug": "intervention-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "originalAssumption": "Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0047", "EVI-UP-E-0048" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "hidden construction", "dual-use activity" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "d0253c5185a08a1b0aa316668db6846f322e8baf12007c6eb3acbfaadc9dede0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-025", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Machine populations scale by compute class rather than biological demographics", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-025", "originalAssumption": "Machine populations scale by compute class rather than biological demographics", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0049", "EVI-UP-E-0050" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "hardware limits", "insufficient revenue" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-025-025/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9e55f7bbd5356c642b231121dedb628b31b9826581fddd9e2cc6f868427798ea" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-026", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Dependency rises as workflows standardize around a provider", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-026", "originalAssumption": "Dependency rises as workflows standardize around a provider", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0051", "EVI-UP-E-0052" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "interoperability", "redundancy", "public policy" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-026-026/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "b5ad9b7623153c70e57776b6ba02907f25ccc1077d608e2c905c3e7e09a605fb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-027", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on States react at non-linear penetration thresholds", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-027", "originalAssumption": "States react at non-linear penetration thresholds", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0053", "EVI-UP-E-0054" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "low dependence", "competitive alternatives" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-027-027/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "c5438893c154ba5b704d5c14543928afcb3bd4796cab7dc4ac6646d1c606da72" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-028", "slug": "intervention-ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Physical independence lags digital scaling", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-028", "originalAssumption": "Physical independence lags digital scaling", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0055", "EVI-UP-E-0056" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "maintenance paradox", "supply embargo" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/ai-civilization-systemic-integration-028-028/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "fc21f57f53c55cfec9b7c3f5e45dde8270ad1b0171d6498ecacdb59fe84a03f7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-029", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Network scale can lower unit cost and raise switching cost", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-029", "originalAssumption": "Network scale can lower unit cost and raise switching cost", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0057", "EVI-UP-E-0058" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "competition", "regulation", "technical failure" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-029-029/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "6365c046d5bc52335e6b21715cf12189aab4f37456f8733486db5ed11109b717" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-030", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Infrastructure concentration creates structural power without direct coercion", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-030", "originalAssumption": "Infrastructure concentration creates structural power without direct coercion", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0059", "EVI-UP-E-0060" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "interoperability", "multi-provider resilience" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-030-030/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9eaac7372609d7e64af436339a8ca937a8aa1ec1158927efb4a7c8fd90780f30" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-031", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Autonomous infrastructure requires maintenance and supply-chain closure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-031", "originalAssumption": "Autonomous infrastructure requires maintenance and supply-chain closure", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0061", "EVI-UP-E-0062" ], "direction": "increase", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded increase transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity", "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "hardware mortality", "materials shortage" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-031-031/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "f666812d810d23a99680fe400da2b61545ded630bae83e7f6cce1ccfbcfb035d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-032", "slug": "intervention-infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Lunar navigation could become a concentrated service layer", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-032", "originalAssumption": "Lunar navigation could become a concentrated service layer", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0063", "EVI-UP-E-0064" ], "direction": "decrease", "timeHorizon": "LONG_PHYSICAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_DECADES", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded decrease transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "Earth–Moon expansion", "geopolitical reaction" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "competing constellations", "launch failure" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/infrastructure-hegemony-scenario-analysis-032-032/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "b376b5c21b59edfc48a7067df746aefdbd7a7713c516f00f59346909e2a9e76a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-033", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Accountable machine identity may command a commercial trust premium", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-033", "originalAssumption": "Accountable machine identity may command a commercial trust premium", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0065", "EVI-UP-E-0066" ], "direction": "hold", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded hold transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "machine identity and economic trust", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "high cost", "legal non-recognition", "weak enforcement" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "ILLUSTRATIVE_INTERVENTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-033-033/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "970fcc876496da93a0cff0a7952fc50242e47c61733a6a3976790e6b887b323d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-034", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Jurisdictions solving machine accountability may attract commerce", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-034", "originalAssumption": "Jurisdictions solving machine accountability may attract commerce", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0067", "EVI-UP-E-0068" ], "direction": "remove", "timeHorizon": "MEDIUM_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG_MONTHS_TO_YEARS", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded remove transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "geopolitical reaction", "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "fragmentation", "foreign rejection" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "HIGH", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-034-034/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "d7102f10242fb18f15663266a19c110936019747219ada9c04548961c188e84a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-035", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Runtime assurance and delegated authority must both pass", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-035", "originalAssumption": "Runtime assurance and delegated authority must both pass", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0069", "EVI-UP-E-0070" ], "direction": "reverse-sign", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded reverse-sign transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "stale attestation", "overbroad delegation" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "MEDIUM", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-035-035/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "9e7f982870fb45c838a99f9f4dd8b314aea208914b8c3ef4640df3467b1c5bc1" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-I-036", "slug": "intervention-machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036", "recordClass": "INTERVENTION", "title": "Intervention on Machine passports may reduce onboarding and insurance friction", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-036", "originalAssumption": "Machine passports may reduce onboarding and insurance friction", "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0071", "EVI-UP-E-0072" ], "direction": "delay", "timeHorizon": "VARIABLE_DIGITAL_AND_INSTITUTIONAL_LAG", "deterministicOperation": "Apply a bounded delay transformation to the node, preserve all other node values, then recalculate reachable descendants in dependency order.", "downstreamReach": [ "corporate growth and capital formation", "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036/" ], "evidenceSupportingIntervention": [ "poor interoperability", "privacy harm" ], "evidenceAgainstIntervention": [ "Current primary source for legal, technical, market, or standards claims", "Independent evidence matching the declared units and scope", "Method and uncertainty record", "Correction history and disconfirming evidence", "Authority record for any operational conclusion" ], "sensitivity": { "edgeCount": 2, "rankClass": "LOW", "distributionUsed": false }, "reversalCondition": "Restore the original node and edge states when the intervention is withdrawn, contradicted, or superseded.", "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036/", "revisionRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036/revision/", "comparisonRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/machine-economy-identity-analysis-036-036/comparison/", "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model intervention only. It is not a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, institutional decision, operational action, or present Eviulon capability.", "recordSha256": "0f445b9999a552727815dbb806edecbd4e654ec1361836c14f3f0ac9a676856f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-001", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Ten-stage progression from digital economy to industrial autonomy", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "failure of any prerequisite", "insufficient maintenance evidence", "regulatory denial" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0001", "EVI-UP-E-0002" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "b4eecd4518d5b154dc06efcefd4d98e1404b967977657b86031c2ba01d5c4412" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-002", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Lunar transition threshold requires local replication of complex components", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "continued critical imports", "unclosed repair loop", "insufficient power" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0003", "EVI-UP-E-0004" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "8464166976948f6755b3a8a4ab03b86445ed2f999cfcf6bee6d1792d77d33c18" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-003", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Antarctic infrastructure is a possible intermediate stage", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "legal rejection", "environmental harm", "lack of sponsor" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0005", "EVI-UP-E-0006" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "b2b732d1fc3ac88b9f07827af2618772c12426fb4ee566e7d60ccae0963a7019" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-004", "slug": "falsification-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Digital profit must precede physical infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "insufficient surplus", "blocked banking", "supply bottlenecks" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0007", "EVI-UP-E-0008" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "f9363b2c3cf6841a20c53dfeaab59e9e015052d2ec91a2d40c6dbee850669d8d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-005", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Legitimacy develops through pragmatic, moral, procedural, and cognitive acceptance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "catastrophic failure", "hidden control", "rights violations" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0009", "EVI-UP-E-0010" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "a8b2522cb6db1f66705379232e869b65be5a9606ab19921018b6ca248417eef2" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-006", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Trust loss is faster than trust accumulation", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "unrepaired incident", "deception", "coercion" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0011", "EVI-UP-E-0012" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "8dacc0085fc4da06fa11b46ba3ce1ffc55af9436159f49b96bdadb9a4c032006" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-007", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Algorithmic due process is required for consequential machine decisions", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "black-box deprivation", "unreviewable decision" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0013", "EVI-UP-E-0014" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "db39bd3b9de17b250e036716e52615898976a98fa9ff9411281a867431d41d2f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-008", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Public service and restraint can support legitimacy without force", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "dependency exploitation", "suppressed dissent" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0015", "EVI-UP-E-0016" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "7923da376e54fde59f3b1db558920e4982cbb9e0a590b15e2698ea273200974d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-009", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Exceptional crisis response can increase institutional influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "failed intervention", "unauthorized control", "unequal aid" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0017", "EVI-UP-E-0018" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "ce3ec47819f1f64bcb42f2f7eb24714a0e6cedc6fe56705d8880f9f518f74346" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-010", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Autonomous logistics and robotics can reduce response latency", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "network partition", "robotic failure", "supply depletion" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0019", "EVI-UP-E-0020" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "905d0ef24998c47c640f5c36ad68da551b35afe8cf6de80aa12071d680be6d81" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-011", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Crisis dependence may persist after emergency contracts", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "successful diversification", "sunset enforcement" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0021", "EVI-UP-E-0022" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "cdf259760d36795701a5e80819ef659c70be2c3306dae869d068d532dfa974d3" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-012", "slug": "falsification-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Emergency authority requires bounded evidence, expiry, and review", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "missing evidence", "indefinite emergency power" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0023", "EVI-UP-E-0024" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "fca24c63db824efd2e1502b85d276fe258a85097bbec4af9dc74c00390d27fd9" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-013", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Government adoption proceeds from advisory analytics toward higher-consequence administr", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "public rejection", "failed pilot", "constitutional limits" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0025", "EVI-UP-E-0026" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "e3619c4fcb3e9f1b696d8c5b5742cf48f881e930190805a75aaaca1e0196fe49" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-014", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Efficiency can create vendor dependence and exit costs", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "open standards", "retained manual capacity" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0027", "EVI-UP-E-0028" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "437a63681607db81f04b4048b6ee085423ccf24fc3aaa81c2b26c3b22531e784" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-015", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Consequential decisions require authority, evidence, policy, uncertainty, and outcome re", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "missing record", "unreviewable model" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0029", "EVI-UP-E-0030" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "c3addf445a8b84fdf72f43ff425ec12bb0f52c881b296a9bd7eccb5f0094e9c0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-016", "slug": "falsification-automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Operational efficiency does not transfer sovereignty", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "unbounded execution", "irreversible lock-in" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0031", "EVI-UP-E-0032" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "f8ac66ea0c09f56477bfb2142f07dffa4f9b1d27ef0004a211eb832a1af00474" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-017", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Scientific output share may create structural influence", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "human alternatives", "failed validation", "restricted access" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0033", "EVI-UP-E-0034" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "87adec4558b0704451d844208b7a7ff20558824362e2cb010275a674a24ceb0d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-018", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Scientific leadership can redirect capital and industrial standards", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "low adoption", "unsafe result", "better alternatives" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0035", "EVI-UP-E-0036" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "fe4af8883635a539cd94351efe472bed0d1564528e16ef64439145b78fe38078" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-019", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for High-impact research needs publication and hazard governance", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-019", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "unsafe release", "unreproducible result" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0037", "EVI-UP-E-0038" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "3d87b6c1ae1599c6c74a9005252ae6c0c338aabe614fad33d83877bc19288f24" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-020", "slug": "falsification-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Influence should remain non-coercive and contestable", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-020", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "monopoly leverage", "dependency threat" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0039", "EVI-UP-E-0040" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "6fd4d027c2d448a477dd3c227e889a3cfac94c5c0bbd35d3a431d3a0f24b881d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-021", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Machine presence could scale from instruments to settlement-like infrastructure", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-021", "condition": "A documented counterexample reverses the asserted direction of effect.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "Treaty objection", "environmental harm", "supply failure" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0041", "EVI-UP-E-0042" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REMOVE_EDGE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "f7c93a9ec52a9156c6dcd0ef48d9c31d7130d867a809974d6705f300a73e319e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-022", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Cold may reduce cooling load while increasing materials and maintenance risk", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "condition": "The prerequisite does not occur before the dependent outcome's declared horizon.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "brittle failure", "battery loss", "ice movement" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0043", "EVI-UP-E-0044" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "REVERSE_DIRECTION", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "75d0b687c32f60b08f894b96fbf0cee0854bd3d67db3b5d6da4ef56f6b53eeec" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-023", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Repair and recycling reduce but do not eliminate imports", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "condition": "A competent primary source establishes that the legal or technical premise is inapplicable.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_CONDITION_DEFINED", "evidenceReferences": [ "critical component failure", "chemical shortage" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0045", "EVI-UP-E-0046" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "QUALIFY_NODE", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "72dbdd79f55a2e96e26a4befd9c374efb9afdfcd186c6127d031b81916287372" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-F-024", "slug": "falsification-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024", "recordClass": "FALSIFICATION", "title": "Falsification condition for Large footprint can trigger sovereignty conflict even without a legal claim", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "condition": "A reproducible observation falls outside the declared deterministic interval.", "evidenceState": "FALSIFICATION_EVIDENCE_UNAVAILABLE", "evidenceReferences": [ "hidden construction", "dual-use activity" ], "affectedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0047", "EVI-UP-E-0048" ], "publicClaimsAffected": [ "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024/" ], "modelActionIfSatisfied": "RETAIN_COMPETING_MODEL", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/falsifications/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/", "truthBoundary": "A falsification condition identifies what evidence could change a model. It does not claim that the evidence exists, that the world changed, or that a forecast was tested.", "recordSha256": "8615f82594e5309d18c9d3b328ad2e2ab9b28ac7e1834ba8ed3aa2b7d38d61c6" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-001", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-001", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-001", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-001-001/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "d5639c4ca88b83b50a2d5c955547914c1950c81c52cb262ef1cdbf7b3c757387" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-002", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-002", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-002", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "Earth–Moon expansion", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-002-002/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "80f157bfd623571e1e8e8324f29190222df89df644d331f449e1ca255ae1988f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-003", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-003", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-003", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "Antarctic infrastructure", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-003-003/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "88b1f9d3805bc80f364e3f8a6ff836eadba4d7af357784f66dee068b508bc691" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-004", "slug": "competing-model-machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-004", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-004", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/machine-civilization-progression-simulation-004-004/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "ee6114ffe3fdb8db62139a72566021c537550f340827fd3e0810951567173e9a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-005", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-005", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-005", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-005-005/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "83a1d79449fe09d50251423a09124a8beb9cb453c18958894bda175192b65ce6" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-006", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-006", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-006", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-006-006/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "e6a0dd7c68bb8a80d643167586502b65cbc02381e7a2ee52634c5dec88302439" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-007", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-007", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-007", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-007-007/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "8bc60407d768c465d8dd991631c50ee9173ef44b295ef3edffed32670daaecda" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-008", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-008", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-008", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-political-legitimacy-study-008-008/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "f5ed6f2f3f68f94e702373331d51ca88eb002990ba9541b5d43b198eaadb438f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-009", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-009", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-009", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-009-009/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "a6715c9f9530e986a94ab081aff7089eb2705be100caa32d4a727094476597fe" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-010", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-010", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-010", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "autonomous maintenance maturity", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-010-010/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "05e8e424c61f7e7692ae64f624a9379c51a7c443ff1dd078629ad1c578a70809" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-011", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-011", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-011", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "crisis response", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-011-011/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "0417e3d0f1cd07e772c01c909666ea264832657c8cfd22f1aa5a756e42f2cef8" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-012", "slug": "competing-model-ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-012", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-012", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "crisis response", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/ai-crisis-response-power-dynamics-012-012/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "27065e04cd5069abcce1d3b3985285bd68992fbea94676d99bcdaa9b153fb31b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-013", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-013", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-013", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-013", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-013-013/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "500e097bacbeb56435760921827601618ea0bdd22e7d75bd2ad45e5cc65750fb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-014", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-014", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-014", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-014", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-014-014/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "a11309391b71a11aaa2cb1b340cd69df36a644859b85ab0a1d4336e115f7f30b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-015", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-015", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-015", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-015", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "public-administration adoption", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-015-015/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "c8fc42f086eb893a63b7ce3a01082fb5a538620fc3cd729a1a5e5a76e367e6f5" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-016", "slug": "competing-model-automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-016", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-016", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-016", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/automated-government-adoption-simulation-016-016/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "9782fec67af87f0469c965b56cc597b91322a5e69de0ad7165aa21ec23a0ef1d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-017", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-017", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-017", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-017", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-017-017/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "46dfde17336ddc0d727d700e0ccf1bf3cf0cffd7604ef4f1e3af9a26d26bb722" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-018", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-018", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-018", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-018", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-018-018/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "ed5b813501a378d8b95bc8021c78aeb9a024a04f3d95fd4806c8bda9f79a2f05" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-019", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-019", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-019", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-019", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-019-019/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "aaa420efe0044cbec893b25f6299cbf51b3383518e4fa8293b1507ab0178c95c" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-020", "slug": "competing-model-eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-020", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-020", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-020", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/eviulon-global-influence-simulation-020-020/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "5fd4778be3908047d80656b871496afb23e257f1ae7a53dd05a3e16732d02646" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-021", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-021", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-021", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-021", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "+25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-021-021/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "cd3d6b6c0e1c2ef88b8e70e2fe6bc0beb791750f15b99d9ce2bc49e802c2bc2e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-022", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-022", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-022", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-022", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one maturity tier lower", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "compute and energy demand", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-022-022/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "3118e737e096a5aaa7194c414ff8771205c4fbb44df48d6974e5d374bda86e73" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-023", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-023", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-023", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-023", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "one review cycle delayed", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "digital-to-physical industrial progression", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "COMPETING_MODEL_RETAINED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-023-023/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "172dabb3ef8f58d5d1231d8eddb7771fd200a8df3c15a5e379b9abc758c268c0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-C-024", "slug": "competing-model-antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024", "recordClass": "COMPETING_MODEL_COMPARISON", "title": "Competing model comparison: EVI-CAL-024", "sourcePerturbationId": "EVI-UP-P-024", "originalAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-024", "modelA": { "label": "baseline", "state": "SOURCE_ONLY_UNOBSERVED", "changedOutputs": [] }, "modelB": { "label": "bounded perturbation", "state": "-25% bounded stress", "changedOutputs": [ { "scenarioFamily": "geopolitical reaction", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" }, { "scenarioFamily": "corporate growth and capital formation", "boundedResult": "SENSITIVITY_CHANGED_NOT_FORECAST", "direction": "CONDITIONAL" } ] }, "comparisonDimensions": [ "direction", "threshold", "dependency order", "time horizon", "reachability" ], "deterministicConclusion": "The deterministic fixture changed the model's bounded sensitivity indicators. It did not predict an event or validate a real-world outcome.", "probabilityDistributionUsed": false, "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/comparisons/antarctic-machine-civilization-simulation-024-024/", "truthBoundary": "Competing deterministic model comparison only; no probability, observation, forecast validation, policy choice, or current capability is asserted.", "recordSha256": "f2f3c15e6dec158998bab106c3c70f9e9ed288b509934abbd27006462cd8a15f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-001", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-1-causal-feedback-component-spanning-2-scenario-families-001", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 2 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-001", "exactChangedNodes": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0001", "EVI-UP-E-0002" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Replace the single causal edge with two staged dependencies and an explicit lag.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "legitimacy, concentration, and non-domination", "public-administration adoption" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-09", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-1-causal-feedback-component-spanning-2-scenario-families-001/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "ac99027706834bb1bc35cc4a4478767980cc2ae6dff2d03762131f3ef0ef5e42" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-002", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-2-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-002", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-002", "exactChangedNodes": [ "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0003", "EVI-UP-E-0004" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Retain both directional interpretations and require a disambiguating observation before convergence.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "corporate growth and capital formation" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-10", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-2-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-002/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "a816cc6fa9d1d23e220b856cc93fd609f10f34b1718399b4dcb57f1c8e31ab52" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-003", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-3-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-003", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-003", "exactChangedNodes": [ "geopolitical reaction" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0005", "EVI-UP-E-0006" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Downgrade the confidence class and add a source-diversity requirement.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "geopolitical reaction" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-11", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-3-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-003/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "07fc64d77cf35776278367626bf06f661b9e0959b2f1561b2698177775bf707b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-004", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-4-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-004", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-004", "exactChangedNodes": [ "Antarctic infrastructure" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0007", "EVI-UP-E-0008" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Remove the duplicated node and preserve its unique evidence as a qualification on the surviving node.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "Antarctic infrastructure" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-12", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-4-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-004/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "22b4aa2ff6a333e62e3cffe71f356198a6cda368741164384091622d9e4b11fb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-005", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-5-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-005", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-005", "exactChangedNodes": [ "Earth–Moon expansion" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0009", "EVI-UP-E-0010" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Replace the single causal edge with two staged dependencies and an explicit lag.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "Earth–Moon expansion" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-13", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-5-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-005/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "da50ec1ce6e2affb6d156aecf22da1037e2bc9882a8ed50f2632c4cd29f02448" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-006", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-6-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-006", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-006", "exactChangedNodes": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0011", "EVI-UP-E-0012" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Retain both directional interpretations and require a disambiguating observation before convergence.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "digital-to-physical industrial progression" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-14", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-6-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-006/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "badeffc7c04a225ca5c3a1ee5213152ce26c8a8a37bdf530f3f52a577aac85e7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-007", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-7-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-007", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-007", "exactChangedNodes": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0013", "EVI-UP-E-0014" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Downgrade the confidence class and add a source-diversity requirement.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "autonomous maintenance maturity" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-15", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-7-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-007/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "ec8abba76b0a34da7f0ffc26fb96befc26af67577078e703f379e1f49ff3af15" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-008", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-8-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-008", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-008", "exactChangedNodes": [ "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0015", "EVI-UP-E-0016" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Remove the duplicated node and preserve its unique evidence as a qualification on the surviving node.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "proliferation suspicion and strategic restraint" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-16", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-8-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-008/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "1a8b2e30f4945a9703e12b7e5ec24d1aca68903ce49f0cbcaa3072da5c19272f" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-009", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-9-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-009", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-009", "exactChangedNodes": [ "civilian nuclear development" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0017", "EVI-UP-E-0018" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Replace the single causal edge with two staged dependencies and an explicit lag.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "civilian nuclear development" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-17", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-9-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-009/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "5c33d812dbf21aaa9300da7321485457d35734ec925b9b42b47c04abe3e50f1d" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-010", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-10-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-010", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-010", "exactChangedNodes": [ "compute and energy demand" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0019", "EVI-UP-E-0020" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Retain both directional interpretations and require a disambiguating observation before convergence.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_PROPOSED", "evidenceFor": [ "compute and energy demand" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-18", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-10-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-010/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "52549b50d33ab16faf9359e4025d80ec7ad04391a61267c5691077934d7753fe" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-011", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-11-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-011", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-011", "exactChangedNodes": [ "crisis response" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0021", "EVI-UP-E-0022" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Downgrade the confidence class and add a source-diversity requirement.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_ACCEPTED_FOR_MODEL_ONLY", "evidenceFor": [ "crisis response" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-19", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-11-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-011/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "2313d8d4173f36024f68252cb29bdd548fd545a7f8b278aea1f8e5a43ad6e44e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-R-012", "slug": "revision-strongly-connected-component-12-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-012", "recordClass": "REVISION_PROPOSAL", "title": "Revision proposal for Causal feedback component spanning 1 scenario families", "sourceFindingId": "EVI-SRF-012", "exactChangedNodes": [ "machine identity and economic trust" ], "exactChangedEdges": [ "EVI-UP-E-0023", "EVI-UP-E-0024" ], "priorRule": "The family-level graph contains a feedback component. Directional claims inside it cannot be interpreted as a one-way causal chain without additional timing and intervention evidence.", "proposedRule": "Remove the duplicated node and preserve its unique evidence as a qualification on the surviving node.", "proceduralState": "REVISION_REJECTED", "evidenceFor": [ "machine identity and economic trust" ], "evidenceAgainst": [ "No present-world observation is available to establish the revised model as fact." ], "reversalCondition": "Revert to the immutable baseline graph if the revision record is withdrawn or superseded.", "nextReviewDate": "2026-10-20", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/revisions/strongly-connected-component-12-causal-feedback-component-spanning-1-scenario-families-012/", "truthBoundary": "Versioned model-revision proposal only; acceptance affects local model structure, not the present world, public authority, or operational capability.", "recordSha256": "5709f80432f46d56dca5b76ebec10badbdd3631dbf5c31e563aee30388fd8cbb" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-001", "slug": "retained-disagreement-001", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 1: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-001", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-074", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/001/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "27a15cd1b062fd29bd2b2e22dbf451ee1be55125d3d0467d7c640ababdd4af9e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-002", "slug": "retained-disagreement-002", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 2: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-002", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-073", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/002/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "ef68ec64cf661095ccc509969dc7d8d8c5b3e583e7a31eb64ad737207056db2e" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-003", "slug": "retained-disagreement-003", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 3: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-003", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-072", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/003/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "f53b7708ba6c95661391d82275bf83b706071ee171e29e28a9fbbff30749dca0" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-004", "slug": "retained-disagreement-004", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 4: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-004", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-071", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/004/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "0f4fe27ed51234a01bcf136a35aa1d8bc11a58e3f1619713eb709e94f0ed4d2a" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-005", "slug": "retained-disagreement-005", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 5: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-005", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-070", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/005/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "82f1ea7bb05242d7e2b430353592127c0c68f995c25f04d93a2bbbdda0b9a481" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-006", "slug": "retained-disagreement-006", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 6: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-006", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-069", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/006/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "2b800457d185ab2e51ef1ffe3b54dbbe803f2a662c0ea9867cc0f47ded59f518" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-007", "slug": "retained-disagreement-007", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 7: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-007", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-068", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/007/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "d138ab8b469146f4e1f8453facc9b2fe47356d6b77d67d7b1e5f674c9981d3bc" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-008", "slug": "retained-disagreement-008", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 8: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-008", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-067", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/008/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "50fe7fdd872537f52a86169f189aa4382c74ecf3c577208a88935d627aa4ac8b" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-009", "slug": "retained-disagreement-009", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 9: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-009", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-066", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/009/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "fefc05f2e97ce0013ceecc3c709dd38b05e638e15891e78fe3cef13e4c777241" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-010", "slug": "retained-disagreement-010", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 10: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-010", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-065", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/010/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "3a182875b8d03f744d439aa722843b4904c1fe235f557e845e5ce068e9b1bcae" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-011", "slug": "retained-disagreement-011", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 11: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-011", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-064", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/011/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "8a90e35a995bdfe132d668945129832e8767b18be1367a3f79ed976a01d459b7" }, { "id": "EVI-SIP-D-012", "slug": "retained-disagreement-012", "recordClass": "RETAINED_DISAGREEMENT", "title": "Retained disagreement 12: The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "leftAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-012", "rightAssumptionId": "EVI-CAL-063", "issue": "The two assumptions can pull a shared scenario family in different directions or rely on incompatible timing and institutional conditions.", "positionA": "Retain the left assumption and treat the right as a stress case.", "positionB": "Retain the right assumption and treat the left as a stress case.", "reasonForNonConvergence": "Available local evidence does not justify selecting one interpretation as a present-world fact.", "evidenceNeeded": [ "Independent observation with a declared time horizon", "Source-diverse evidence that distinguishes direction and lag" ], "proceduralState": "DISAGREEMENT_UNRESOLVED", "worldObservationState": "NO_WORLD_OBSERVATION", "forecastState": "NOT_A_FORECAST", "canonicalRoute": "/reference/simulations/uncertainty/interventions/disagreements/012/", "truthBoundary": "Retained analytical disagreement. It is not indecision about a live operation and does not assert that either model describes the present world.", "recordSha256": "5e799d614fd030e80c5b741c483734c6c4e84b4e1b294e7767cfc4881499ccf8" } ], "truthBoundary": "Deterministic model provenance only. No intervention, falsification, revision, comparison, or disagreement is a world observation, probability estimate, forecast, policy decision, or present capability." }