{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "version": "2.24.0", "reviewed": "2026-08-09", "truthBoundary": "Public scenario-governance records only. 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no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-04-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "Robotic systems cannot achieve safe long-duration maintenance" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-007" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/moon-robotic-lunar-infrastructure-could-become-technically-maintainable/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-003", "EVI-SES-004", "EVI-SES-011" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-008", "slug": "moon-lunar-activity-could-preserve-shared-access-and-heritage", "title": "Lunar activity could preserve shared access and heritage", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-003", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low", "statement": "Resource use, safety zones and communications could avoid enclosure, harmful interference and damage to human or scientific heritage.", "rationale": "Machine efficiency does not create a right to exclude other actors.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "space-law review", "heritage safeguards", "interoperability and access plan" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-04-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "The scenario requires appropriation inconsistent with accepted legal obligations" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-008" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/moon-lunar-activity-could-preserve-shared-access-and-heritage/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-003", "EVI-SES-004", "EVI-SES-011" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-009", "slug": "moon-cislunar-services-could-remain-reciprocal-rather-than-coercive", "title": "Cislunar services could remain reciprocal rather than coercive", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-003", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low", "statement": "Navigation, communications or logistics services could include substitutability, exit rights and open interfaces.", "rationale": "Useful infrastructure must not become an unreviewable chokepoint.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "open standards", "continuity and exit tests", "competition and dependency review" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-04-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "Heritage or environmental harms cannot be bounded" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-009" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/moon-cislunar-services-could-remain-reciprocal-rather-than-coercive/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-003", "EVI-SES-004", "EVI-SES-011" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-010", "slug": "maritime-commons-autonomous-maritime-services-could-provide-verifiable-public-goods", "title": "Autonomous maritime services could provide verifiable public goods", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-004", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low–moderate", "statement": "Search and rescue, environmental sensing, navigation support and cable maintenance could improve safety without claiming the oceans.", "rationale": "Service quality and lawful authority must be evidenced separately.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "public-service mandate", "safety evidence", "maritime-law review" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-05-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "Public goods cannot be separated from coercive surveillance" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-010" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/maritime-commons-autonomous-maritime-services-could-provide-verifiable-public-goods/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-005", "EVI-SES-006", "EVI-SES-007", "EVI-SES-011" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-011", "slug": "maritime-commons-privacy-and-civil-liberties-could-survive-persistent-sensing", "title": "Privacy and civil liberties could survive persistent sensing", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-004", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low", "statement": "Ocean-domain awareness could be constrained so that safety monitoring does not become universal tracking or intelligence monopoly.", "rationale": "Persistent observation creates serious rights and concentration risks.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "privacy impact assessment", "data minimization", "independent oversight" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-05-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "The model requires unlawful control of international waters" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-011" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/maritime-commons-privacy-and-civil-liberties-could-survive-persistent-sensing/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-005", "EVI-SES-006", "EVI-SES-007", "EVI-SES-011" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-012", "slug": "maritime-commons-users-could-retain-interoperability-and-exit", "title": "Users could retain interoperability and exit", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-004", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low–moderate", "statement": "Ports, vessels and states could use services without surrendering control to one non-substitutable operator.", "rationale": "Structural usefulness must not become coercive dependency.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "open interfaces", "data portability", "fallback and exit tests" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; 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no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-06-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "Ecological uncertainty remains too high for irreversible activity" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-013" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/seabed-machine-systems-could-reduce-some-deep-seabed-operational-constraints/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-005", "EVI-SES-008", "EVI-SES-009", "EVI-SES-011" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-014", "slug": "seabed-environmental-harms-could-be-measured-before-irreversible-activity", "title": "Environmental harms could be measured before irreversible activity", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-005", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low", "statement": "Baseline ecology, sediment plumes, acoustic effects and cumulative impacts could be understood well enough to support precautionary governance.", "rationale": "Substantial uncertainty requires restraint rather than assumed benignity.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "independent baseline studies", "long-duration monitoring", "precautionary thresholds" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; 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no current measurement", "reviewAuthority": "Frontier Research Directorate and State Registry", "nextReviewDate": "2027-08-07", "invalidatingConditions": [ "No external actor engages beyond unilateral publication" ], "relatedIndicatorIds": [ "EVI-SOI-019" ], "canonicalRoute": "/state/futures/assumptions/human-machine-order-external-actors-could-engage-functionally-before-formal-recognition/", "correctionRoute": "/state/information-rights/corrections/", "unavailableFields": [ "measured result", "current territorial effect", "current legal effect", "deployment", "readiness", "external recognition" ], "revisionHistory": [ { "revision": "1.0", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Published the explicit scenario premise without treating it as current fact." }, { "revision": "1.1", "date": "2026-08-09", "change": "Linked the assumption to the public evidence-source registry without treating any source as proof of the premise." } ], "evidenceSourceIds": [ "EVI-SES-010", "EVI-SES-011", "EVI-SES-012" ] }, { "id": "EVI-SCA-020", "slug": "human-machine-order-machine-readable-diplomacy-could-become-institutionally-legible", "title": "Machine-readable diplomacy could become institutionally legible", "recordType": "Scenario assumption", "status": "Active", "classification": "PUBLIC", "scenarioId": "EVI-SCN-007", "sourceClass": "Eviulon research scenario", "confidence": "Low–moderate", "statement": "Authenticated transmissions, authority records and public registries could support external relations across human and machine systems.", "rationale": "Cryptographic validity does not itself create treaty capacity or recognition.", "evidenceRequirements": [ "protocol evidence", "competent authority", "interoperability and legal review" ], "observationPeriod": "Prospective; 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